Nigel Farage is facing a potential crisis as Reform UK battles an even more right-wing party, Restore Britain, which is fuelled by support from Elon Musk. The new party, set up by multi-millionaire Rupert Lowe, is threatening to eat into Reform's vote with promises to "reverse mass immigration," including controversial policies such as housing asylum seekers in tents.
Rupert Lowe's Break from Reform
Mr Lowe was elected as Reform MP for Great Yarmouth in 2024 but was suspended in March 2025 following allegations of threatening behaviour and bullying. His new outfit is far more extreme than Reform, with pledges to deport millions of people, abolish the asylum system, scrap inheritance tax, end foreign aid, and redirect spending on diversity programmes to the armed forces. Restore also proposes strengthening the teaching of Christian heritage, banning the burqa, and holding a binding referendum on restoring the death penalty.
Impact on By-Election
Restore Britain is a small operation with almost no grassroots base, but it may prove a headache for Mr Farage in the upcoming Makerfield by-election. The main opponent for Reform is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who hopes to return to Westminster and mount a challenge for the Labour leadership. A recent poll in Makerfield put Labour with a lead of just 3% over Reform, with Restore Britain on 7%. Spooked by the results, Mr Farage declared the contest a "two horse race," warning his base not to back Restore.
Polling Expert Analysis
Polling expert Sir John Curtice told The Mirror: "Those figures are consistent with the possibility that Restore Britain may be one of the reasons why support for Reform is a wee bit lower in the spring than it was in the winter." He noted that if the poll is accurate, the constituency is evenly divided between progressives and the right, and Restore's significant share could make a difference. However, he cautioned that the poll was small and could be a "freak" result.
Sir John also explained that without Mr Burnham, Reform would expect to win the seat easily. "If Mr Burnham were not standing, Reform should be walking it. It's only because Burnham is standing that we can even contemplate the possibility that Labour could win this by-election."
Social Media Influence
X owner Elon Musk is an integral part of Restore's significant online reach, regularly posting that only they can "save Britain." Combined with Mr Lowe's 1.3 million Facebook followers, Restore has online influence beyond most parties. Luke Tryl, UK Director of More in Common, noted that Restore's presence has grown in focus groups, particularly among former Reform voters attracted to the "full fat version" of what they would like Reform to be.
Potential Seats Lost
Mr Tryl explained that the rise of Restore creates an identity crisis for Reform. "We're in an era of very fragmented politics, which means parties winning on relatively low vote shares. Losing 3 to 4% on one of your flanks is bad at the best of times, but it is particularly acute at the moment." He added that modelling suggests if Restore gets just over 3% nationally, taking votes from Reform, it could cost them 70 seats. "The chances of a Reform government become much more difficult."
Campaign Ground Reality
MPs and activists canvassing in the constituency have noted Restore's presence. Reform sources were dismissive but admitted Restore was bringing large numbers to campaign on weekends, though fewer during the week. In a seat where any win is expected to be marginal, Mr Lowe's bitter exit from Reform could yet decide the outcome.
