The battle for the Right between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch is only going to get hotter, with this Autumn potentially a pivotal moment in determining who becomes the real challenger to Labour and Andy Burnham.
Badenoch is certainly not lacking in chutzpah. Two years ago, during the closing stages of the Tory leadership race, she breezed into the front room barefoot before apologising that she had to quickly sort out a DIY order – it was a new toilet seat – before an interview could begin.
Once underway, she was asked why she was so confident of winning, given she was up against Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly. Her response exuded ultra confidence as she reeled off the names of four very senior Tories who, she claimed, had all told her that her breakthrough reminded them of Margaret Thatcher in the 1970s.
Badenoch's vow to defeat Starmer and Farage
“It is very flattering for me but also slightly overwhelming at the amount of hope and faith people are putting in me and I don’t want to let them down,” she added. Later on she vowed to defeat both Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage on her way to becoming Prime Minister. One down, one to go.
Starmer was the easy part. His plodding, lawyerly, non-ideological style was in stark contrast to Badenoch's combative, dynamic and relevant approach with her clear idea of what she stands for. The far more interesting adversary for the Tory leader is Nigel Farage and the battle for the Right.
Reform UK’s boss is arguably the most influential British politician since Tony Blair. The pint-swilling populist, who played a massive role in Brexit, still touches part of the electorate that no-one else can reach. But the question is whether Badenoch is now beginning to edge ahead in their ongoing battle.
Polls suggest Tories ahead of Reform
The polls seem to think so, with three this week suggesting that the Tories are now ahead of Reform. That might not reflect the full picture – Politico’s poll of polls still has Labour in the lead on 26% with Reform on 21% and the Tories on 18%.
However, some in Westminster believe this Autumn will see the Conservatives take over. “Slowly but surely Kemi has got the party moving in the right direction this year and we are only going to get stronger,” one senior Tory told this week.
They added: “Reform is in a complete mess and things are only going to get worse for them. They won’t completely go away but under Kemi’s leadership we will become the dominant force on the Right again.”
Reform's response and planned boost
Not that any of the recent scandals over donations and racism seem to be bothering Farage too much. He was on jovial form with the Daily Express this week, describing some of it as “absolute nonsense” and suggesting it wouldn’t impact his party’s popularity.
Reform is expecting to have a double boost in the coming months too. Farage is expected to unveil a much-needed Shadow Defence, Armed Forces and Veterans minister by the end of next month. A source said the party is currently “disadvantaged” by not having one now and the person will be “ex-military” and not a “career politician”.
The party is also rapidly working on its own TV channel on YouTube and beefing up investment in its media facilities at its headquarters on Millbank following the £72 million of donations it received from two cryptocurrency billionaires. Party insiders argue that any talk of being usurped by the Tories in the polls is “utter baloney”. Whatever the outcome, it’s going to be one hell of a ride.
