By mid-July, as now seems almost inevitable, the United Kingdom will have a new prime minister in Andy Burnham. He will then select his own cabinet, prompting intense speculation about which current Labour figures will retain or gain top jobs and who will be sidelined. The former Greater Manchester mayor's team is expected to blend loyalists, big hitters, and some surprising survivors from Keir Starmer's government.
Definite Inclusions: Top Contenders for Burnham's Cabinet
Ed Miliband is widely tipped for a senior economic role, possibly chancellor. Allies are actively promoting this idea. Even if not chancellor, the energy secretary is a Labour heavyweight and no Keir Starmer fan, so a cabinet position feels inevitable.
Shabana Mahmood, under different circumstances, could have been running to become Labour's first permanent female leader. She is not, and there is speculation she might retain her current job as home secretary, where her hardline policies on immigration could temper Burnham's more left-leaning approach.
Wes Streeting did not run for leader, endorsed Burnham, and now expects a big job in return. He is among those tipped for chancellor, though he resigned as health secretary just six weeks ago in protest against Starmer. Burnham might reward him with a major role or sideline him via the Foreign Office.
Angela Rayner, the former prime minister and communities secretary, left government last September after a mix-up over £40,000 in unpaid stamp duty. In May, HMRC cleared her of any deliberate wrongdoing. As a leading figure on Labour's left, she is almost certain to return.
Lou Haigh was the first cabinet casualty of the Starmer era, resigning as transport secretary in November 2024 after a fraud conviction over a missing work phone. Allies insist the circumstances are less murky than they appear, and as one of Burnham's main organisers, she expects to come back.
Anneliese Midgley, the Knowsley MP, has been in parliament only two years but has a long background as a Labour organiser and played a central role in Burnham's push for No 10. She seems set for a move to the frontbench.
Sally Jameson, another influential northern female MP around Burnham, has represented Doncaster since 2024. Like Midgley, she has no ministerial experience but a background in Labour politics and work as a prison officer.
Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, is hugely experienced and knows Burnham well from his last stint in parliament. She finished marginally above him in second place in the 2015 Labour leadership contest. She is expected to stay in cabinet, though possibly in a different role.
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, has felt detached from the Starmer government and is more ideologically aligned with Burnham. Her Wigan constituency even borders his in Makerfield.
Douglas Alexander, the Scotland secretary, was brought back into cabinet by Starmer after a nine-year gap. He is an experienced hand from the Blair and Brown cabinets.
Miatta Fahnbulleh, a 2024 entrant with an economics and thinktank background, was immediately brought into government by Starmer. With close links to Ed Miliband, she is an outside bet for chancellor.
Jonathan Reynolds openly disliked being moved from the business brief to become chief whip. He missed Starmer's No 10 departure and was very obviously on view when Burnham posed with MPs later on Monday.
Uncertain Futures: Maybes and Possibles
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister responsible for renewed links with Europe, is close to Starmer. But with a postponed major EU summit looming for Burnham, he might stay in the same job.
Rachel Reeves, the UK's first female chancellor, is a big hitter. She attended Burnham's Westminster Hall rally on Monday, but her future in government is unclear.
Darren Jones, a key figure in the Starmer firmament, held the specially created job of chief secretary to the prime minister and appeared in Downing Street to hear Starmer resign. He is considered an effective operator and may find a role.
John Healey was the final departure from Starmer's government over worries about the defence investment plan. He might return in defence or another job.
Bridget Phillipson is not on the Burnham bandwagon but is not overly tribal. Her allies believe she has a case for staying in her education brief, where she shepherded tricky plans over SEND provision, or getting another job.
David Lammy, the justice secretary and deputy PM, is a major figure in the current government. He is close to Starmer, standing front and centre at Monday's Downing Street farewell crowd before defending the PM's legacy in TV interviews. His transition is uncertain.
Dan Jarvis, defence minister for just under a fortnight in place of John Healey, will seemingly push the defence investment plan over the line before the change of PM. He might then return to a more junior ministerial role.
Likely Departures: Those Facing the Exit
Steve Reed, the communities secretary, is the ultimate Starmer loyalist, co-founding Labour Together, the internal thinktank that led the Starmer project. He will likely return to the backbenches.
Richard Hermer was made attorney general because, as a close friend, Starmer knew and trusted him. A peer, he will return to work in the upper house and his legal career.
Peter Kyle, the business secretary, effectively confirmed Starmer's downfall on the Sunday broadcast round by saying he would not be 'delusional' and say otherwise. He has no particular ties to Team Burnham and is under no illusions.
Liz Kendall, the science and technology secretary, is on the right of the party, not part of the Burnham gang, and will almost certainly be replaced.
James Murray was shifted from the Treasury to take Streeting's place as health secretary. He will be in the job long enough to get his picture added to the ministerial wall, but that will be about it.
Keir Starmer himself: there has been chatter about Burnham showing continuity by letting Starmer continue as foreign secretary, given his Trump-whispering role. This is almost certainly not going to happen. Neither man wants it, and Starmer will most likely focus on a long summer holiday.
