Kemi Badenoch has achieved a significant milestone, with Britons now viewing her and the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour for the first time since the General Election. According to Ipsos polling, 35% of Britons now say the Tories are the main opposition, surpassing the 32% who believe Nigel Farage's Reform UK holds that role. Reform had led by 28 points as recently as May.
Burnham's lead persists
Despite this progress, the Conservative leader faces a formidable challenge if she is to replace Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. The Ipsos polling found that voters think it "more likely than unlikely" that Mr Burnham will win the next election, with 43% holding this view compared to 33% who disagree.
Among those who voted Labour in 2024, 42% now see Mrs Badenoch's party as the main opposition, while only 29% view Reform UK in that role.
Election outlook and leader perceptions
Four in 10 Britons believe the outcome of the next election, which must occur no later than August 2029, will be either a Labour majority (19%) or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party (21%). In September, only one in three people thought these were the most likely outcomes.
Nearly eight out of 10 voters (79%) say it is unlikely that Green Party leader Zack Polanski will ever become prime minister, and almost the same share (78%) say the same about Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey.
The Conservative and Reform UK leaders also face an uphill battle in convincing the public they are strong contenders to succeed Mr Burnham. Only 33% think it is likely that Mr Farage will be PM, with Mrs Badenoch a point behind on 32%. This contrasts with polling from May, when half of respondents thought it likely Mr Farage would lead the country.
Reactions and analysis
A Conservative source said: "Kemi Badenoch and her team are putting in the hard work and taking the fight to this Labour Government, unlike Reform who are letting them off the hook. The Conservatives are different from the party that lost the last election, and different from Reform. We are the only party that can unite the country behind a common-sense plan to get Britain working again."
Keiran Pedley, UK director of politics at Ipsos, said: "These findings reflect a political environment that continues to be in flux following Andy Burnham's arrival as Prime Minister and recent struggles for Reform UK. The Burnham bounce looks real – with the public more likely to see Labour as being at least the largest party after the next general election compared to a month ago."
"Meanwhile, in the battle for hearts and minds on the Right, the Conservatives continue to make progress. Time will tell if this leads to a decisive shift in voter preferences in their direction or if this is merely a low ebb for Reform UK that they recover from."
