Andy Burnham's supporters believe the incoming Prime Minister will change the dial of UK and Scottish politics, according to Daily Record Political Editor Paul Hutcheon. The country, they say, is in the grip of two forms of nationalism that have been boosted by the hapless Keir Starmer. Reform is powering ahead in England and Wales while the SNP maintains its lock on power north of the border. Conventional parties like Labour, which secured a conditional general election win, are becoming electoral roadkill.
Burnham's Bloodless Coup
Burnham backers hope their man's bloodless coup to depose Starmer will be a turning point for two reasons. One, they believe the Northern MP – whose Labour politics are soft Left – will get on the front foot on the cost of living crisis. They expect him to intervene directly to put money into people's pockets, either by increasing public spending or cutting taxes. Two, they are confident his instinctive embrace of devolution will be of particular interest to Scots.
Starmer vs. Burnham on Devolution
Starmer, a London lawyer, had neither a love nor a dislike for devolution. Burnham, as Mayor of Greater Manchester, has the scars on his back from battles with Whitehall and will style himself as an anti-Westminster PM. This will entail further devolution across the UK and trying to turn the House of Lords into a senate of the nations and regions. Sources say he will not budge on indyref2, but they expect him to propose a rewiring of the UK as a radical alternative to breaking up a near 320-year Union.
Scottish Labour's Hopes
Scottish Labour MSPs and MPs, while sceptical of personality politics, believe a Burnham premiership could be a game changer. SNP leader John Swinney clung on to power in May despite his Government's poor record and his party being knee deep in scandal. Burnham backers in Scotland say a strong “first 100 days”, with none of the mistakes of his predecessor, could boost a sinking Scottish Labour poll rating.
Sarwar's Future
The “King of the North” entering Downing Street may also provide an answer to the question of Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's future. Sarwar recorded his party's worst Holyrood result on May 7th and Labour has lost support at every devolved election since 1999. The Glasgow MSP's insistence he wants another five years has created an internal backlash, with his critics wanting him to quit this year. Burnham and Sarwar are pally and the would-be Prime Minister will likely take advice on Scottish Labour from him. If Sarwar wanted to create a new party to contest Holyrood elections – effectively scrapping Scottish Labour – Burnham would listen to any plan carefully. It is not impossible to imagine Prime Minister Burnham appointing Sarwar to a reformed House of Lords and making him a Government Minister. Lord Sarwar of Pollokshields would make way for a successor who would lead either a reformed or new centre-left party.
Challenges Ahead
This is the theory of a Burnham Government, but politics has a way of torpedoing even the best laid plans. He has a small window of opportunity to set the UK on a different course and save the country from the trauma of a Farage-led Government.
