Net migration is expected to increase to 230,000 within five years, according to the official spending watchdog, despite a predicted fall to 120,000 this year. The forecast comes as Reform's Zia Yusuf warned that another 1.1 million migrants will be added to Britain's population over the next six years.
Watchdog forecasts migration rise
The budget watchdog said: "We expect net migration to fall to 120,000 in the year to mid-2026. The near-term decline reflects visa restrictions introduced since 2023 alongside higher emigration following past high levels of immigration, especially among students."
However, the watchdog added: "Net migration is then forecast to rise gradually to 230,000 by the year to mid-2031. This rise largely reflects our assumption that the net outflow of British nationals and EU nationals who arrived under the pre-Brexit immigration regime will gradually lessen."
Reform's warning on population growth
Mr Yusuf told the Daily Express the rise would come "all while our health service, housing, prisons, roads and welfare system are buckling under pressure". He accused Andy Burnham of "betraying Britain, just like the Tories did" and said: "We need net negative immigration. That is what Reform will deliver."
Official figures and policy measures
Official figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in May showed net migration dropped to an estimated 171,000 last year, the lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The ONS suggested that the crackdown on foreign care workers and students, first introduced in 2023, was beginning to limit numbers.
Former home secretary Sir James Cleverly banned overseas care workers and foreign students from bringing their family members with them to the UK as part of measures to reduce record-high net migration. He also increased the salary threshold for skilled workers to £38,700, which rose again to £41,700 in July 2025. The minimum income requirement for British citizens and settled foreign nationals bringing partners to the UK was increased from £18,600 to £29,000.
Net migration hit 944,000 in the year to March 2023, amid an influx of foreign students, a spike in non-EU workers, particularly in health and social care, and the introduction of the Ukraine and Hong Kong refugee visa schemes, ONS figures revealed. The latest forecasts indicate that numbers will begin climbing again from next year despite repeated attempts to reduce international arrivals.
