Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is set to unveil the final version of plans to make foreign workers wait longer before they can apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR), with the detail of the proposals expected after 3.30pm.
The original plans, announced last November, would require most workers to wait 10 years rather than five for ILR, with care workers facing a 15-year wait. The measures would also apply to foreign workers already in the UK, not just new arrivals.
Climbdown on Care Workers
According to a report by Jessica Elgot and Chris Osuh, there has been some form of climbdown in relation to care workers. However, the broad thrust of the plan appears to be retained, with ILR rules being toughened in a way that will affect hundreds of thousands of people.
The proposals were hugely controversial when first announced, with Andy Burnham among the ministers arguing that care workers should be treated more kindly. When Mahmood announced the plans last autumn, some government backbenchers were horrified, though public condemnation was mostly muted.
Changing Political Context
The political situation has shifted significantly since the plans were first drawn up. The electoral threat from Nigel Farage has receded considerably, and net migration is falling sharply, according to figures from last week's OBR report.
Burnham, who is spending most of the day on a flight to the Commonwealth summit, declined in an interview for an ITV documentary to say that net migration was too high. He told ITV that small boat crossing numbers were "too high, for certain", but when asked about legal migration, he replied: "It's come right down. And I think when you have planned migration, it's difficult to say is it too high or too low, because it's got to be, if you like, following gaps in the economy."
Burnham declined to be drawn on whether legal migration had to come down further.
No Primary Legislation Needed
To implement the ILR changes, Mahmood does not need primary legislation, meaning there will be no chance for potential Labour rebels to amend the plans in the Commons. However, it has been reported that more than 100 MPs are queasy about what is being planned.
Speaking in the Commons last November, Mahmood argued she had to do something about the "so-called Boriswave, specifically the cohort of lower-qualified workers who – along with their dependants – entered the country through the health and care visa" because some of them were "never expected to be net economic contributors", making "more stringent" controls needed.
Today's agenda includes a Downing Street lobby briefing at 11.30am, a speech by Danny Kruger to the Policy Exchange thinktank at 12.30pm, and Angela Rayner taking questions in the Commons at 2.30pm. Mahmood's statement on the ILR changes is expected after 3.30pm, with Burnham arriving in Antigua for the Commonwealth summit in the evening.
