New figures from Frontex, the EU's external borders agency, show the migrant route across the Channel is now the second busiest in Europe. In the first nine months of this year, 30,944 people were detected trying to reach the UK.
Former Border Force director general Tony Smith told the Daily Express that this suggests "a greater proportion of those entering the EU illegally are headed here."
Eastern Mediterranean remains busiest
The only route busier across the continent is in the Eastern Mediterranean, where 31,803 migrants were detected in a corridor between Libya and Crete. Thousands were also detected in the Aegean Islands and at the land border between Bulgaria and Turkey.
Smith added: "These are detections, so we don't know how many are getting into the EU undetected. But the trend has been downward for some time now, yet the outward trend to the UK remains stubbornly high, which suggests a greater proportion of those entering the EU illegally are headed here."
Home Secretary meets EU counterpart
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood hosted her EU counterpart Magnus Brunner in London on Monday, with migration one of the key topics. Sources have suggested Mahmood wants to "re-establish" links to data systems to give officials "much better background information on migrants who have passed through other EU countries."
Frontex said the number of illegal migrants detected crossing into the European Union has fallen by almost a third in the first nine months of this year. Officials have linked this to "sustained co-operation with partner countries and preventative measures in key departure states."
Concerns over rising deaths and instability
Almost 2,000 people have died trying to cross the Mediterranean this year. Frontex fears Iran and Pakistan's expulsion of Afghans could lead to an increase in migrants trying to reach Europe. Officials are also monitoring rising instability in the Sahel region of Africa.
Frontex executive director Hans Leijtens said: "On most routes into Europe, fewer people are attempting the journey, and that has held through the summer and into the autumn. But things can turn quickly: detections on the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands were four times higher in September than in August.
"Smuggling networks do not disappear when the numbers fall. They move, and they wait for an opening. Our job is to be ready when they find one."
