President Donald Trump has turned the question of Republican succession into a favorite parlor game, polling dinner guests on who should carry the party's banner in the 2028 presidential election. During a Monday evening gathering on the slate patio of the White House—where the Rose Garden once stood before Trump had it paved over last year—the 47th president asked visiting law enforcement officials and allies to choose between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Trump's Informal Straw Poll
After criticizing the Democratic Party's bench and taking aim at California Governor Gavin Newsom over a months-old interview, Trump dismissed potential 2028 opponents as "a lot of beauties." Turning to Vance, he remarked, "JD, I envy you—and other people." Then, addressing the crowd, he said, "I don't know who it's going to be—Is it going to be JD, is it going to be somebody else? I don't know."
The president proceeded to ask his guests: "Okay, who likes JD Vance?" The response was tepid applause. He then asked, "Who likes Marco Rubio?" The reaction was slightly more muted. Trump then suggested a Vance-Rubio ticket, calling it a "dream team," but quickly added, "That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance!"
Vance's Rising Profile
Vance, 41, is widely considered the frontrunner to inherit Trump's political legacy, thanks to his appeal among moderate Republicans. He has taken on a larger role in foreign affairs, leading unsuccessful peace negotiations with Iran and attempting to rally support for former Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, who lost his re-election bid. Recently, Vance has been deployed to rallies in the Midwest to connect with voters ahead of the midterms. His background growing up in a white working-class Appalachian family has helped him engage with voters, though a recent stumbling speech in Iowa attracted negative attention.
Once a self-described "never Trump guy," Vance's evolution into Trump's running mate mirrors the broader Republican Party's shift toward Trump since 2015. After being heckled at a Turning Point USA event in April, Vance struck an understanding tone with young voters who disagree with the administration's stance on the Iran war. "I'm not saying you have to agree with me on every issue. What I am saying is don't get disengaged because you disagree with the administration on one topic," Vance said.
Rubio's Multifaceted Role
Rubio, 54, is a former Florida senator who unsuccessfully sought the presidency in the 2016 primary. Despite his years in public service, he has maintained a lower profile than Vance. However, his role in the Trump administration has made him the subject of a running joke due to the many positions he holds. In addition to his Senate-confirmed role as Secretary of State—making him fourth in line to the presidency—he is also the first person since Henry Kissinger to serve as both Secretary of State and White House National Security Adviser. He has also served as acting Archivist of the United States and acting head of the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Rubio's versatility has cemented him as a trusted leader. He is deeply involved in foreign affairs, assisting in Iran discussions and leading efforts to reform Cuba's communist government. Although he has been excluded from high-stakes negotiations over the Russia-Ukraine and Iran wars in favor of Trump's friend Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, Rubio has stepped into a more public spokesman role, leading White House press briefings with jokes and making amends with Pope Leo XIV.
Rubio has publicly stated that he would not run against Vance if the vice president seeks the presidency. "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him," Rubio said in a Vanity Fair interview last year.
