A croaky-sounding Donald Trump, 80, is on the road, holding rallies across America in a vain bid to swerve his most humiliating defeat since 2020. Trump's approval rating is historically poor, hitting an all-time low of 36% last week. Partly as a result of his being deeply unpopular, his Republican Party is likely to suffer crushing losses in both the House of Representatives and Senate, with Democrats expected to take control of one or both houses of Congress.
What's at stake in the US Midterms
All 435 House seats, the equivalent of the House of Commons, as well as 35 Senate seats, their upper chamber like an elected, more powerful House of Lords, are up for grabs on Tuesday. But this isn't just a local, or even a national, election. The choices American voters make in this election will have repercussions around the world for global security, trade and the future of America's relationship with the world.
Losing control of both houses would theoretically limit Trump's power, leaving him open to more targeted scrutiny, investigations and even impeachment. Congress controls the purse strings of government, with most large budget spending approved by them, and trade agreements and tariffs subject to their scrutiny. Trump was able to introduce his tariff plan because the Republican-controlled Congress didn't stop him.
Impact on UK negotiations and military spending
Any chink in Trump's armour, any limit on his ability to do whatever he wants, puts Andy Burnham in a better negotiating position. It's much easier to negotiate with a tiger if it's lost a few of its teeth. Still dangerous, but a little less of a hopeless case. Similarly, losing control of America's money could limit what Trump can do militarily. Congress is currently deadlocked on approving a $1.5 trillion military budget in 2027, a 40% increase on this year, and it's unlikely to get any closer to approval with fewer Senators on his side.
Is Congress going to be able to insist Trump back away from siding with Russia over Ukraine? No. Can it order him to withdraw from Iran and leave Cuba alone? Again no. Congress can't make Trump change his international obsessions. But it can make pursuing some of those obsessions more difficult.
Fears of Trump ignoring Congress
All of that being said, Trump has never been one for following the rules if he can get away with it, and there are growing fears he'll increasingly ignore Congress if it tries to stand in the way of what he wants. He's already tried to do this during his second term. His tariff plan was imposed through executive order, as was his bid to scrap birthright citizenship, the guarantee of citizenship to any child born in the United States. Both were challenged or struck down by the Supreme Court, but neither should have got anywhere near that far.
He overstepped his authority by clawing back funds from approved projects he doesn't like, by firing officials without good reason and by trying to deploy National Guard troops to states like Tennessee, Illinois and California over the objection of Governors. And many Democrats are deeply uncomfortable with trusting a Trump-appointee-stuffed Supreme Court to defend American democracy.
What happens on election night
Trump's authoritarian shenanigans will almost certainly start on election night. He's already laid the groundwork to challenge and undermine the result and cry foul if Republicans suffer the heavy losses the polls predict. Donald Trump likes power, and strongly dislikes others having power over him. Moreover, he hates to look like a loser. And we only have to look back to January 6th, 2021 to see what happens when Donald Trump loses.
