Scotland will be thrust into 'fresh constitutional chaos' if the Scottish National Party (SNP) secures a majority in Thursday's Holyrood election, according to critics, after leader John Swinney declared he would initiate discussions on another independence referendum on his first day in office.
Mr Swinney stated that he would immediately plan talks with the Prime Minister if the SNP wins 65 or more seats in the Scottish Parliament. However, his remarks drew sharp condemnation from opponents, who fear it will reopen divisions from the contentious 2014 independence referendum.
Opposition Reacts
Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay said: 'Yet again, John Swinney confirms his only interest is his lifelong obsession with independence and he remains hellbent on plunging Scotland into fresh constitutional chaos and a neverendum.' He added: 'Breaking up the United Kingdom will be his number one priority if the SNP win a majority in just a few days time. We cannot allow this nightmare scenario to happen.'
Mr Findlay emphasised that the next Scottish Parliament should focus on the cost-of-living crisis and improving public services, not on Mr Swinney's 'damaging and divisive fixation.' He urged pro-UK voters to unite behind the Scottish Conservatives on their peach ballot paper to prevent an SNP majority, as they did in 2016 and 2021.
Swinney's Stance
In an interview with the Daily Record, Mr Swinney confirmed he would push for another independence referendum immediately if his party secures a majority. Asked if he expected talks to start straight away, he replied: 'Yes. That is what I think needs to happen because there has to be a recognition of the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland.'
He dismissed suggestions that prioritising independence over the cost of living was a mistake, arguing that governments can address multiple issues simultaneously. 'Government can do a number of things at the same time. I've taken a number of steps already to tackle the cost of living issues and I want to make sure that we take other steps in the Scottish Parliament,' he said.
Conservative Warnings
The Scottish Conservatives have been cautioning voters that they must unite to thwart another independence referendum. At a campaign event in Edinburgh, Mr Findlay expressed concern that Prime Minister Keir Starmer might concede to SNP demands, leading to further constitutional turmoil. He said: 'The worry is that Keir Starmer is so weak he will not listen to Anas Sarwar and there is a very real chance that they will roll over, and Scotland would be plunged back into constitutional chaos.'
Mr Findlay also argued that if the SNP fails to win a majority, Scots should be allowed to move on from constitutional debates. However, he acknowledged that Mr Swinney would likely continue pushing for a referendum regardless. 'I'd like to think that if he failed to win a majority that would be it put to bed. But of course John Swinney only cares about breaking up the United Kingdom,' he said.
Reform UK and Cooperation
In his Daily Record interview, Mr Swinney claimed a strong result for Reform UK would pose 'a big threat to the operation and direction of the Scottish Parliament and to its very survival.' He expressed willingness to work with other parties to marginalise Reform, including Labour at Holyrood.
Mr Swinney, who has stated he would serve a full term and seek re-election in 2031, admitted he sees 'a number of potential first minister candidates' within the current SNP ranks and among incoming members. SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn and Housing Secretary Mairi McAllan are considered potential successors.
Polling Projections
A survey by More in Common of over 4,000 Scottish adults projected the SNP would win 60 seats, five short of a majority. It placed Reform UK in second with 22 seats, Labour third with 13 (its worst since devolution), followed by Conservatives and Liberal Democrats on 12 each, and Greens on 10.
A separate Norstat poll for the Sunday Times showed the SNP leading the constituency vote at 36%, Labour 20%, Reform 16%, Conservatives 14%, Lib Dems 11%, and Greens 1%. On the regional list, the SNP had 28%, Labour and Reform 17% each, Conservatives 14%, Greens 12%, and Lib Dems 10%.
Analysis by Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would win 57 seats, Reform 19, Labour and Tories 16 each, Greens 11, and Lib Dems 10.
