Starmer's Popularity Plummets to Historic Low Amid By-Election Debacle
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's public standing has collapsed to an unprecedented nadir in the aftermath of Labour's devastating defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election. According to the latest Opinium survey, the Prime Minister's net approval rating has plunged by five points to a dismal -49, marking the lowest level recorded since he assumed office. This rating is notably inferior to any achieved by his Conservative predecessors, including Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May, underscoring the severity of his current political predicament.
Widespread Disapproval and Leadership Comparisons
The survey reveals a stark landscape of voter dissatisfaction, with nearly two-thirds of respondents (64 per cent) expressing disapproval of Sir Keir's performance as Prime Minister. In contrast, a mere 15 per cent indicated approval, highlighting a profound disconnect between the Labour leader and the electorate. While no major party leader secured a positive rating in the poll, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey emerged as the most popular with a net rating of -5, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski at -7, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at -8, and Reform UK's Nigel Farage at -13.
By-Election Fallout and Tactical Voting Trends
The precipitous decline in Starmer's popularity follows Labour's humiliating third-place finish in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where the party trailed behind the victorious Greens and second-placed Reform UK. This loss is particularly striking given that Labour had secured the Greater Manchester seat with over 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 general election, making it a former stronghold. The defeat has ignited fresh speculation about Sir Keir's future as Prime Minister, with many questioning his ability to lead the party effectively.
In a revealing indication of shifting voter allegiances, the Opinium survey found that nearly half (47 per cent) of Labour voters would contemplate voting for the Greens in the next general election. Additionally, one in five (21 per cent) of Labour supporters said they might consider backing Reform UK in the future, while two in five (42 per cent) of Conservative voters expressed potential support for Nigel Farage's party. Conversely, only 9 per cent of Reform voters indicated they would consider switching to Labour.
The data also highlights a growing propensity for tactical voting, with one in five (21 per cent) of Labour voters stating they would switch to the Greens if Labour were highly unlikely to win in their local constituency. A similar proportion (20 per cent) of Green voters said they would switch to Labour under analogous circumstances, suggesting a fluid and unpredictable electoral landscape.
Ministerial Resignation Adds to Starmer's Woes
Sir Keir's troubles were compounded over the weekend when Cabinet Office minister Josh Simons was compelled to resign following allegations of a 'smear campaign' targeting journalists. Although an investigation by the Prime Minister's ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, concluded that Mr Simons had not breached the ministerial code, the Makerfield MP stated he had 'become a distraction from this Government's important work' and stepped down.
The controversy centred on claims that Labour Together, a think tank formerly led by Mr Simons, paid PR firm Apco Worldwide £36,000 to investigate the backgrounds of journalists who had written stories about the organisation. While Mr Simons initially asserted that Apco was hired to probe an illegal hack, Sir Laurie's report indicated that the minister now accepts the terms agreed with Apco were 'wider than he had understood' and that he acted 'too hastily in confirming their appointment'. The ethics adviser noted that while Mr Simons acted 'in good faith', the MP acknowledged the 'perceived gap between his public statements and what he now accepts appears to be a more extensive scope has been damaging'.
Expert Analysis and Survey Methodology
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented on the findings, stating, 'The Gorton and Denton defeat, alongside Keir Starmer's worst-ever ratings, shows just how shaky Labour's ground has become. With large swathes of its remaining voters eyeing the Greens, and the Conservatives equally exposed to Reform, the traditional bases of both major parties look more fragile than ever.'
The Opinium survey was conducted between 25 and 27 February, polling 2,050 British adults to capture the current political sentiment. The results paint a picture of a deeply unsettled electorate, with traditional party loyalties eroding and tactical voting becoming an increasingly prevalent consideration. As Sir Keir Starmer grapples with these challenges, his ability to regain public trust and stabilise Labour's position remains in serious doubt, setting the stage for a tumultuous period in British politics.
