The head of the United Nations atomic agency has voiced grave concern that six nations without nuclear weapons are openly discussing developing their own arsenals, raising fears of a new global arms race.
IAEA Chief Warns of 'Extreme Danger'
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned that some signatories of the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) could breach the pact, potentially triggering a 'domino' effect that might see up to 20 states pursue nuclear bombs. He described a nuclear arms race as his 'worst fear', stating: 'At some point, we are going to see a crack in the system. And then we’ll have a domino [effect]. It is a very, very fragile position.'
Countries in Discussion
Officials in Poland, South Korea, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden have either debated or openly stated their intent to obtain nuclear weapons, citing a destabilised world and weakening of NATO. Grossi noted: 'There’s been a few important countries ... in Europe, in Asia Minor, in the Far East that have mentioned [it] and where a public discussion is taking place about this possibility.' He also expressed concern over talk of 'friendly proliferation'.
Poland
Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested in March that Poland would eventually try to obtain nuclear weapons, stating the country would not be 'passive' as it expands nuclear energy capacity. Last year, Warsaw signed a treaty with France opening the door to potential protection from French nuclear missiles.
South Korea
A March 2025 survey found 76 per cent of South Koreans support developing a nuclear arsenal, the highest level since 2010. Former President Yoon Suk-yeol said in 2023 that the country would consider it if North Korean threats worsened. However, Foreign Minister Cho Hyun stated on April 1 that Seoul has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons, calling non-proliferation a 'strategic choice'.
Japan
In December 2025, a senior Japanese security official suggested acquiring nuclear weapons amid a worsening security environment. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara later said Japan's nuclear policy has not changed. Japan has refused to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, citing the need for nuclear deterrence under severe security conditions.
Turkey
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in February that global developments could prompt Turkey to consider nuclear weapons. A July 2025 poll found 71 per cent of Turks support developing a nuclear programme, with only 18 per cent opposed.
Saudi Arabia
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has repeatedly stated that Saudi Arabia would seek nuclear weapons if Iran developed them. He told Fox News in 2023: 'We are concerned of any country getting a nuclear weapon... if Iran did successfully develop a weapon, we will have to get one.'
Sweden
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has ruled out hosting nuclear weapons in peacetime but said the situation could change if Sweden is dragged into war. He stated: 'If there were to be a war that somehow affected us, then it would be a completely different situation.'
The five countries recognised by the NPT as nuclear-weapon states are the US, Russia, the UK, France, and China. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, Russia holds 5,459 warheads, the US 5,277, and the UK 225 out of over 12,300 globally.
