Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning a new round of mobilisation to bolster Russia's military in Ukraine amid falling recruitment numbers and heavy losses, according to independent Russian outlets Verstka and Vazhnyye Istorii. The Kremlin could make the move after the State Duma elections in September, citing eight sources inside the presidential administration and military enlistment apparatus.
Mounting Casualties and Fuel Shortages
The West and Ukraine estimate Russia is suffering more than 30,000 casualties each month. GCHQ director Anne Keast-Butler said almost 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the war began. Meanwhile, Ukraine's devastating drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has caused a deepening fuel shortage, with restrictions on fuel sales in place across regions amid soaring prices and long queues at filling stations.
Earlier this week, Putin accused Ukraine of using the strikes to “destabilise society” while insisting he is “ready” for peace talks. However, Reuters reports that Russian hardliners are urging escalation after a breakdown in US-led peace talks and Ukraine's battering of Russian oil infrastructure, including a major oil refinery in Moscow last week.
Mobilisation Risks
Putin is thought to be reluctant to reintroduce mobilisation, which would be Russia's first since 2022. A source close to the Kremlin told Verstka: “Things are not unfolding entirely as planned, and those involved in the process have started to get creative. It is unclear what mobilisation would fundamentally change, other than mobilising protest and triggering an economic collapse.”
Internet searches for terms linked to ‘mobilisation’ more than quadrupled in Russia between January and April, according to The Telegraph. Other sources suggest the Kremlin may opt for alternative measures like calling up reservists to avoid political fallout.
Frontline Conditions
One Russian soldier serving on the Kharkiv frontline told Verstka: “We’ve been fighting for about 300sq metres since January – constant artillery ping-pong, lots of killed and wounded… We’re short of everything: manpower, shells, drones. We’re eating livestock feed.”
Despite heavy casualties, Russian forces are making progress in their attempt to take control of Kostyantynivka in Ukraine's Donbas fortress belt. Seizing the stronghold would be considered a strategic breakthrough, potentially allowing Russian troops to advance on three other cities spanning around 31 miles. Ukraine is believed to have taken more territory than it has lost in recent months.
