The 2028 Democratic Presidential Race Begins to Crystallise
Among the numerous whispered-about contenders for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, two figures stand out as seemingly inevitable: California Governor Gavin Newsom, 58, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 52. Both men have recently published books, a classic indicator of higher political ambitions, with Newsom openly acknowledging he is considering a White House bid.
Contrasting Profiles and Political Pathways
Democratic insiders have informed the Daily Mail that Newsom appears to be perfectly aligned with the current political moment. The critical question remains whether voters will still desire his particular brand of leadership in two years' time. Newsom has become a leading voice in the anti-Trump movement, earning national respect within the Democratic Party for successfully guiding California's Proposition 50 to passage last year. This measure was designed to counter Republican efforts to redistrict states to their advantage, aiming to help Democrats retain the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections.
Conversely, those close to Shapiro depict him as a pragmatic achiever with bipartisan appeal from the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania. He is viewed by some as a potentially savvier general election candidate for the party, which gambled on a Californian Democrat in the last presidential cycle and subsequently lost all seven key swing states. However, Shapiro may face significant hurdles in a Democratic primary. He suffers from lower national name recognition, has not engaged in extensive national fundraising, and his Jewish faith could present challenges within a party where animosity toward Israel is growing and support for the Palestinian cause is broadening.
Shapiro's Consensus-Driven Approach
"He's never been a partisan flamethrower. He's not interested in those types of explosive moments," remarked Matt Vahey, a commissioner in Abington Township, a Philadelphia suburb who worked on Shapiro's first campaign for the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and remained with him for five years. Vahey suggests this measured approach might become a liability in a primary contest. "In the primary, you do have to generate a lot of excitement among the base, and they do like some red meat. That's not usually what he serves up," Vahey observed. "He wants to do good work, he wants to develop good policy, and he's willing to work with anybody to get that done."
Shapiro's collaborative style is exemplified by his relationship with Bruce Castor, a Republican with whom he served on the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners. Castor, who served as President Donald Trump's lead impeachment lawyer during the second impeachment proceedings, praised Shapiro's administrative skills. "I've said many times that I thought Josh was the best administrator I'd ever seen," Castor told the Daily Mail. "And if it required a compromise here or there, he had a very soft manner about him in obtaining a compromise."
Shapiro's political career has been one of steady ascent through Pennsylvania's state government, from the House of Representatives to County Commissioner, then Attorney General, and finally Governor in 2022. He was overlooked by Vice President Kamala Harris as her 2024 running mate in favour of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz—a decision Castor believes was fortuitous for Shapiro. "When Harris was considering Josh, I'm sure that I'm not the only one of his friends that told him that was a terrible idea," Castor said.
Newsom's National Ambitions and Scrutiny
Gavin Newsom has followed a parallel trajectory through California politics, beginning on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, becoming the city's youngest mayor at 36, then Lieutenant Governor, and finally Governor in 2018. He survived a recall election in 2021 and was re-elected in 2022. Veteran Democratic campaign strategist Garry South, who managed Newsom's 2010 gubernatorial campaign, remains deeply impressed. "I think in terms of sheer raw brain power, Newsom is really the smartest candidate I've ever worked for," South stated.
South has publicly argued that Newsom could become the first Democratic president elected from California, suggesting that Donald Trump has fundamentally altered the political landscape. "He's lowered the standards in so many different ways in terms of what people look for in a president. And even in terms of personal scandals, Trump has kind of blown that one out of the water, right?" South added, alluding to Newsom's more checkered personal history, which includes past marriages, high-profile relationships, and a publicly acknowledged affair.
South highlights several advantages Newsom holds over Shapiro, including a formidable national fundraising network—having raised over $100 million for Proposition 50—and the outsized influence of California's nearly 500 delegates at the Democratic National Convention. Furthermore, South notes that Newsom will be a former governor by the 2028 election, potentially insulating him from current state issues. "Whatever happens is not really on his watch and that's a really important thing when you're running," South explained.
The Incumbency Factor and Voter Perception
In contrast, Shapiro will likely still be serving as Pennsylvania's governor during the 2028 primaries, assuming he wins re-election later this year—a probable outcome. Pennsylvania Democratic operative Brit Crampsie views this as an asset. "He's really focused on his current job," Crampsie said. "He didn't go out on the campaign trail while Pennsylvanians were waiting on money from the state—shows you what kind of politician and leader that Josh Shapiro is." Indeed, Shapiro delayed his re-election announcement until the state budget process was complete.
Newsom, however, has been actively travelling out-of-state, laying the groundwork for a national campaign. "For Newsom, this has been a full-time occupation for the last year and a half, is to be attacking the administration and furthering his ambition," observed Steve Mavligio, a Sacramento-based Democratic consultant. Mavligio, while praising Shapiro's state-focused, policy-driven approach, expressed doubts about Newsom's enduring appeal. "I think that he's the flavor of the month right now. Because the electorate is demanding that fight, fight, fight, rather than results and policy," Mavligio said. "Most people view him as a show horse rather than a work horse, I think that's gonna hurt."
The stage is thus set for a compelling clash between two governors with divergent styles, bases, and potential paths to the nomination, making the 2028 Democratic primary a contest to watch closely in the coming years.
