Millions of Britons are heading to the polls today in local and parliamentary elections that could reshape the political landscape. From the Scottish Highlands to the Isle of Wight, voters will elect councillors and representatives in devolved parliaments. While issues like bin collections and road maintenance are officially on the ballot, many commentators predict a political earthquake that could end the two-party system and threaten Prime Minister Keir Starmer's survival.
Five Key Things to Watch
Labour Under Siege
Polling suggests Labour could lose over 1,800 council seats—75% of those it is defending—in traditional heartlands like Wales, northern England, and London. The party faces challenges from Reform UK in former 'red wall' areas and from the Greens and independents in safer cities. Losing councils like Barnsley, Hackney, and Sunderland, held since Labour's inception, would be 'traumatising' and could trigger leadership challenges from rivals like Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner.
Devolution and Nationalist Gains
By the weekend, the UK could have nationalist leaders in all devolved administrations. Plaid Cymru is expected to become the largest party in Wales, potentially putting an independence referendum on the horizon. In Scotland, the SNP is forecast to win a fifth term despite scandals, with Reform UK challenging Labour for second place. Turnout from a dispirited electorate remains uncertain.
Reform UK's Momentum
Nigel Farage's Reform UK is expected to make major gains, sweeping aside Conservatives as the main right-wing party and eating into Labour strongholds. The party has professionalised its operations with a new app, but polls suggest its support may have plateaued. The elections will test whether Reform can maintain its momentum.
Greens Under Scrutiny
New leader Zack Polanski faces his first major test. The Greens are predicted to gain nearly 500 councillors, but questions remain about whether they can expand beyond London and big cities. Polanski's eco-populism message must prove its appeal to supplant Labour as promised.
Lib Dems' Quiet Rise
The Liberal Democrats, largely overlooked, could become the largest party in English local government for the first time. They are expected to make an eighth consecutive year of gains, possibly extending beyond traditional 'blue wall' areas into Labour retreat zones like Birmingham and Preston.
The results, expected from Friday into the weekend, will determine the future of British politics and Starmer's leadership.
