Senior Labour figures in London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, as new data suggests the party could drop from first to fourth place in the capital in May's local elections. The modelling, from data firm Bombe, predicts that Labour could lose control of all but two of its councils, with the Greens soaring into first place and taking nine boroughs.
One senior London Labour figure said: 'The government needs to demonstrate that they’re not taking liberal, progressive voters in the capital for granted.' Another added: 'It’s going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swathes of voters on our progressive flank then we’re doomed.' The forecasts, based on a new technique that builds on MRP modelling, suggest Labour could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens.
According to the forecast, Labour would lose more than half its council seats across London, many to the Greens, including in the prime minister's own constituency of Camden, which would fall to no overall control. Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, said last week that Labour faced an 'existential threat' in parts of the country, warning: 'Without a change in course, we risk a repeat of losing large Labour strongholds, like London, just as we did in the 2000s in Scotland.'
Tony Travers, a professor at the London School of Economics, described the potential outcome as a 'political earthquake' that would 'profoundly shock London Labour MPs'. He added: 'The national party has taken London for granted for years and invested all their efforts on targeting Reform-prone areas, and they now have this huge flank exposed on their left.'
The modelling uses gradient-boosted regression (GBRM) with actual election results and polling data from Deltapoll. It predicts Labour could be left with outright majorities in only Newham and Redbridge, while the Greens could also take Lewisham, Waltham Forest, Greenwich, Wandsworth, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hounslow and Brent. The Conservatives would gain one council, Barnet, and Reform UK would take Barking and Dagenham, winning 132 seats across London.
A Labour source criticised the party's strategy, saying: 'A slow handclap for those self-appointed strategic geniuses who ridicule Labour values and think we can afford to sacrifice our core vote by mimicking the performative cruelty of Suella Braverman. The dead end of McSweeneyism must be abandoned before it’s too late.' The Greens face a challenge in selecting enough candidates to contest every ward to achieve the modelled results.
