Labour is projected to win a record 59 or 60 of London's 75 parliamentary seats at the next general election, according to a new Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now poll. The survey, commissioned by PR firm PLMR, indicates the Conservatives could lose two seats, including possibly Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp in Croydon South, and fail to regain a series of Inner London constituencies.
Surge under Andy Burnham
The analysis estimated the impact of tactical voting and found Labour's support has surged under Andy Burnham's premiership. The party, which currently holds a record 59 London seats, could match that figure and potentially beat Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North by 36% to 18%, which would take it to 60 MPs.
Earlier polls had suggested the Tories could win back Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Kensington and Bayswater, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip. However, the new analysis indicates these seats may not be regained.
Greens and Reform UK projections
Zack Polanski's Green Party, which months ago was predicted in one poll to be on course for 21 London seats, would now end up with none. Nigel Farage's Reform UK would gain one seat, Bexleyheath and Crayford from Labour, but only by 28% to 26%, making it far from certain. Reform would hold onto Romford, where Andrew Rosindell MP defected from the Conservatives, technically a Tory loss from the 2024 general election.
The Liberal Democrats would hold six constituencies in south west London. The results would mean no Conservative or Green MP in Inner London or 90% of constituencies in the capital.
Poll details and national picture
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: "In political terms, Andy Burnham has eaten Zack Polankski's muesli, as underlined by the recent Labour win in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election." He added that the Prime Minister is doing well at unifying Left-of-centre votes, "taking votes from the Liberal Democrats and Greens to re-establish Labour as the dominant political force in London." He contrasted this with "the dire position of the party earlier in the year under Sir Keir Starmer."
The poll put Labour on 34% in London, up nine percentage points since July, the Greens down three to 18%, Tories down two to 16%, Reform unchanged on 13%, Lib Dems down two to 9%, Restore up one to 7%, and independents/minor parties down two to 3%. Baxter added: "Right-of-centre parties continue to be racked by their divisions. The Conservatives may even lose seats compared with their poor showing at the last general election."
Nationally, the survey put Labour on 353 seats, a Commons majority of 56, Conservatives 90, Reform 81, Lib Dems 70, SNP 28, Greens four and Restore one. Kevin Craig, chief executive of PLMR, said: "Andy Burnham's leadership is resonating with voters. He speaks in plain English and explains what the Government is doing simply and directly." Fieldwork for the 6,699-person poll was conducted by Find Out Now from 25 September to 2 October, a period covering Labour's conference which may have slightly boosted its ratings.
