Ken Paxton, Texas's attorney general and Republican candidate for US Senate, is struggling in the polls, a situation that seems either predictable or impressive given his history of surviving scandal. Beloved by hardcore Maga voters but viewed with skepticism by the broader public, Paxton has drawn criticism even from Donald Trump, who said the 63-year-old "may not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I've ever seen" while endorsing him.
Paxton's ability to attract and scrape through scandal has earned him a reputation as a kindred spirit of "Teflon Don": nothing sticks. He has survived state prosecution on securities-related charges he settled without admitting guilt, impeachment by the Republican-led Texas legislature on abuse-of-office charges of which he was later acquitted, and numerous other controversies.
A trail of alleged misconduct
In 2011, a tech entrepreneur claimed God appeared to him in a red-roofed Dairy Queen in McKinney, Texas, and told him to give 100,000 shares of company stock to Paxton, then a state legislator, in what critics called an illegal commission. Both Paxton and the entrepreneur denied the allegation. In 2013, Paxton allegedly stole a fellow lawyer's $1,000 Montblanc pen, which he said was a mix-up during courthouse security screening.
In 2020, eight of Paxton's staffers asked the FBI to investigate whether he abused his office to help a real estate investor and political donor in return for a free kitchen renovation and a job for a woman with whom he was having an affair. Paxton and the investor denied the allegations; the investor was never charged, and Paxton's impeachment over the matter ended in acquittal.
In 2022, Paxton's wife, state senator Angela Paxton, allegedly helped him escape in a Chevrolet truck from someone trying to serve him a subpoena for a federal court case, which Paxton said was harassment. Angela Paxton filed for divorce last year on "biblical grounds," and Paxton's scandal sheet includes two alleged extramarital affairs.
Dead heat with Talarico
Despite Texas's Republican lean, Paxton is in a dead heat with Democratic state legislator James Talarico, 37, a former teacher and seminarian affiliated with an arch-progressive mainline Christian church in Austin. Trump has dubbed him "Talafreako." Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but some polls show Talarico leading.
"This is the closest race that we've seen in the state in three decades," said James Henson, a political scientist and pollster who directs the Texas Politics Project. Rightwing groups in "red-alert mode," he added, are pouring millions of dollars into the state to prop up Paxton and other Republicans.
The race is critical to either party securing a Senate majority and is already one of the most expensive of its kind in US history. Paxton has repeatedly dodged debate opportunities, enabling Talarico's campaign to paint him as cowardly.
Leaked tapes and new reports
Less than a month before the election, the Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton was filmed at a 2024 New Year's Eve party in Dubai with an extramarital girlfriend and two men under indictment for federal healthcare fraud, one of whom had donated $190,000 to him. His campaign shrugged off the report, telling the Journal: "Like President Trump, Ken Paxton has been politically persecuted for years... and every time, voters have seen through it and sent him back to office because they know he has always fought for Texas."
In audio clips leaked to the news media by unnamed sources, Paxton admitted in closed-door conversations that he and other Texas Republicans were struggling. In one clip, he seemed to say Trump's recent midterm convention in Texas had hurt more than helped; in another, he said, "I've never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign... it's all coming – you know – from DC."
"I thought that was a bad look for Ken Paxton," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. "It makes it look like he's not grateful for all of the help that's come to him... But without Donald Trump, there would be no Ken Paxton."
Scandal resilience and Republican advantages
Paxton, as attorney general, sued Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia over alleged voting irregularities in the 2020 election, a lawsuit lacking evidence and criticized as a political stunt. Earlier this year, Trump endorsed Paxton over John Cornyn, the longtime Republican senator Paxton displaced in a party primary.
Jed Silverman, an attorney who prosecuted the state securities case against Paxton, noted that Paxton has a clean bill of health in the eyes of the law. Rottinghaus views Paxton's career as "a textbook example of 'scandal resilience'" due to political polarization. Bill Miller, a Texas political consultant and lobbyist, said, "Baggage is something that the American public seemingly has learned to accept."
Republicans have a considerable advantage in campaign spending, with a conservative PAC spending nearly $1m a day to protect Governor Greg Abbott. Elon Musk is personally bankrolling a Super Pac to back Paxton's Senate bid. Angela Paxton has appeared in a political ad urging Republicans to support the ticket, without mentioning her ex-husband.
Texas's political composition favors Paxton, with a slightly higher rural population compared with other large states. Miller described those small communities as "blood-fucking-red." Polling shows higher Democratic base enthusiasm, though Republican enthusiasm has begun to pick up. Even if Paxton loses, Miller said, "he's damn sure got the hide of a rhinoceros."
