A new MRP poll by YouGov for ITV suggests that Labour could be shut out of government in Wales for the first time since devolution in 1999. The survey projects Plaid Cymru to become the largest party with 43 seats, followed by Reform UK on 30, while Labour would slump to just 12 seats, a drop of 23 percentage points to 13% of the vote.
The poll, conducted among nearly 3,000 Welsh adults from 9 to 18 March, indicates that First Minister Eluned Morgan could lose her seat. The collapse mirrors last October's Caerphilly by-election, where Labour fell to third place as voters switched to Plaid Cymru to prevent Reform from winning.
The Greens, led by Zack Polanski, are projected to win 10 seats, their first in the Senedd, benefiting from a new electoral system based on proportional representation. Polanski stated: 'We want Greens to have the strongest possible voice for Wales.' The Conservatives are forecast to win just one seat, and the Liberal Democrats none.
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University noted that Labour's position has improved slightly since January but remains weak. He added that the rise of the Greens does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru's expense, suggesting separate voter pools. A progressive coalition between Plaid and the Greens could govern without Labour.
The election on 7 May comes as Sir Keir Starmer faces speculation of a leadership challenge. A Labour collapse in its Welsh heartland could further destabilise his position. The party has been in government in Wales continuously since 1999.
