A new survey commissioned by Electoral Calculus suggests Nigel Farage could lose dozens of seats at the next general election due to anti-Reform tactical voting. The research, based on responses from over 10,000 voters polled by Find Out Now, found that anti-Reform sentiment has grown over the past 12 months as the party faces scandals on multiple fronts.
Labour voters willing to back Conservatives
The survey found that 50% of Labour supporters in constituencies where the race is a two-way battle between the Conservatives and Reform would be willing to vote Conservative to keep Mr Farage's candidates out of power. This marks an increase of 12% since 2025, when Electoral Calculus last asked voters about their intentions.
Researchers also found that almost all Green voters would lend their support to Labour to defeat Reform in a two-horse race. However, fewer than half of Reform supporters would vote Conservative in an attempt to defeat Labour.
Impact on seat projections
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: "As Labour under Burnham rebuilds its base, left-of-centre voters are surprisingly willing to lend their votes to whomever can stop Reform, even if that means Labour supporters voting Conservative."
He added: "Anti-reform tactical voting has grown over the past year and could cost Reform dozens of seats because the right is divided."
The findings show that Reform could secure 127 seats at the next election on 22% of the vote share. But with tactical voting, the number of seats Reform could win may fall by 44 to just 83.
Labour's gains and voting system debate
Under tactical voting, Andy Burnham's Labour would win an extra 35 seats, taking its total to 287 - still short of the 326 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons.
The research also carries a warning for Mr Burnham, who promised at last month's Labour conference to fight the next general election on a pledge to change the UK's voting system. Before becoming Prime Minister, he supported moves towards a proportional representation (PR) model.
However, Electoral Calculus found that PR would not benefit Labour under current circumstances, with the party dropping to 23% in the polls to tie with Reform for the top spot.
The research states: "We see that Labour performs best under FPTP [first-past-the-post] with tactical voting at 27pc, keeping a lead over Reform on 22% and the Conservatives on 19%." It adds: "Under this system, tactical voting pushes both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens below 10%, while Restore sits on 8%."
Mr Baxter noted: "Interestingly, the first-past-the-post system, plus tactical voting, helps left-of-centre parties much more than proportional representation, which could put Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe into Downing Street."
Tyron Surmon, Head of Research at Find Out Now, said: "At the peak of Reform's polling last summer, there was deep concern that despite only having a third of the vote, this would be enough for them to get a majority in Parliament."
He added: "While this reawakened interest in changing the electoral system, our polling shows that such proposals are a double-edged sword. Thanks to a right-wing split between Reform and the Conservatives, and anti-Reform tactical voting, it may actually be Labour who benefits most from our current system. And any move away from it could be to their peril."
