The by-election in Makerfield may well be a Sliding Doors moment for the United Kingdom. Whichever way it goes, the result has the potential to shape the nation for decades. Victory for Andy Burnham could well be the springboard that propels him into No10, and Labour into a new era. But defeat - which is a very real possibility - would be catastrophic, both for him and the party. It is a dangerous high-stakes gamble, and the next few weeks will not be for the faint-hearted.
The Context of the By-Election
On Thursday, Labour backbencher Josh Simons ended weeks of speculation by announcing he would step down. He gave a full-throated backing to Mr Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, to be his successor. Many within the Labour fold have come to view the King of the North as a saviour figure. He remains unsullied by the difficult last two years but has a record of holding top jobs under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
Challenges Ahead for Burnham
Victory is far from assured though, with Reform on the march in the North West. This month's council elections showed Nigel Farage's party is well-equipped to win in previously safe Labour areas. A bit of number-crunching makes alarming reading for Labour. In the local elections, Reform picked up 50.4% of votes for council wards in the constituency. That was more than double Labour's 22.7%, while the Greens got 10.9%. There is not a huge margin for error - Labour won with a majority of 5,399 in Makerfield at the general election, but Reform still secured more than 12,000 votes.
Reform's Ambitions
Nigel Farage has pledged to throw everything at the by-election. Scuppering Mr Burnham's return to the Commons would be a huge scalp. It would also have a big knock-on effect in the Commons. Most MPs now accept a leadership race is inevitable in the summer, but without Mr Burnham the field of contenders would be very different - and Keir Starmer could well hold on in power. All this is hypothetical, as potential contenders Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband are keeping their cards close to their chest. But Mr Starmer will face the awkward scenario where all the candidates - including Labour's own - are seeking to remove him.
Labour's Response
Labour backbencher Clive Lewis summed up the situation rather well. We know Reform will throw everything at this by-election,
he wrote. We must do the same and then some. Reform have spent a year being told they are inevitable. Makerfield is where we find out whether that is true. Every advance has a limit. This is where we set it.
