US intelligence officials have cast doubt on the effectiveness of the ongoing bombing campaign in Iran, questioning whether it can achieve regime change, according to reports. A classified review by the National Intelligence Council suggests that even a prolonged and aggressive war is unlikely to oust Iran's military and clerical establishment.
The Washington Post reported that the review, completed in mid-February, outlined two potential US actions, both leading to the same outcome: Iran's government would follow protocols for selecting a successor to the supreme leader. Following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week, an interim leadership council has been formed to choose the next leader. Intelligence officials said it was 'unlikely' that Iran's opposition would take control.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers have expressed concern that the airstrikes are depleting US stockpiles of certain advanced weapons. During a closed-door briefing this week, officials warned that rapid use of missiles could affect the US's ability to support allies such as Ukraine. Senator Richard Blumenthal told Time Magazine he was 'deeply concerned about Ukraine', noting that military resources are limited.
The US and Israel began bombing Iran last week, striking government buildings, military installations, and reportedly civilian sites including hospitals and schools. On the first day, 168 girls were killed in a strike on their school, which the Associated Press reported likely came from the US. Iran has retaliated with strikes on Israel, US bases, and other regional targets.
President Trump claimed success at a summit on Saturday, stating that the US had 'knocked out 42 navy ships' and destroyed Iran's air force and communications. However, the intelligence assessment contradicts this optimism, suggesting the campaign may not achieve its stated goals.
