Over the past months, Ukrainian drones have crashed into the chimney of a power plant in Estonia, hit empty fuel tanks in Latvia, and been shot down by Romanian fighter jets stationed in Lithuania. For the first time in a NATO and European Union capital, Lithuanians were pictured sheltering in underground car parks in Vilnius on Wednesday, as authorities warned of unidentified drone activity in neighboring Belarus. No one has died or been injured recently, but the increasing airspace incursions have prompted some Baltic ministers to chastise Ukraine for the violations, which also led to the collapse of the Latvian government in May.
Ukraine Targets Russian Baltic Ports
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s war in Iran has driven up the price of oil, a key revenue stream for the Kremlin, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Baltic Sea ports used for Russian energy exports in an attempt to hit Moscow’s war chest. Ukraine has particularly targeted the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, close to the borders of Estonia and Finland. Russia uses these ports to load ships taking its oil exports through the Baltic Sea. During one attack in May, which set part of the port of Primorsk on fire, more than 60 Ukrainian drones were shot down, Leningrad region governor Alexander Drozdenko said.
Ukrainian officials apologized and said the drones were aimed at military targets inside Russia but were sent off course by Russian electronic interference. The string of airspace violations has prompted questions about the state of air defenses on NATO’s eastern flank.
Russian Electronic Interference Sends Drones Off Course
Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Nordic and Baltic nations have increasingly warned about electronic interference from Russia disrupting communications with planes, ships, and drones. In the Baltic region, Russia often uses jamming and spoofing to send drones off course. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Tuesday that Russia is “deliberately” redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace with electronic interference.
How Jamming and Spoofing Work
Satellite communications systems — known collectively as the Global Navigation Satellite System, or GNSS — receive precise time signals from satellites around 20,000 kilometers (12,400 miles) away in space. Jamming occurs when a receiver is overwhelmed by a strong radio signal transmitted in the same frequency range as GNSS, leaving the receiver unable to fix its location or time. Spoofing involves transmitting fake signals that imitate a real GNSS satellite signal to mislead a phone, ship, or aircraft into thinking it is in a different place.
Drones Entering Baltic Airspace for Many Months
In September 2025, about 20 Russian drones flew into Poland, putting the spotlight on holes in NATO’s air defenses, as multimillion-dollar jets were scrambled. Those drones were not detected in advance, Estonia's defense minister said at the time. Neither was a Ukrainian military drone which crashed with explosives in Lithuania last week, Vilmantas Vitkauskas, chief of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre, said on Sunday. While Poland and Romania responded to drone incursions last year by deploying new anti-drone technology — the first used by the NATO alliance aimed specifically at countering drones — that system is not in place across the entire Baltic region.
Defending against drones requires solving a complex set of technological, financial, and bureaucratic problems, and "there is no one solution against every type of drone," Colonel Janno Märk of the Estonian Defense Forces said. There are various types of drones that operate at different speeds and altitudes, requiring a layered air defense response, Märk said during military exercises in southeastern Estonia.
Budrys, the Lithuanian foreign minister, told AP in an interview Saturday that the Baltic countries are likely going to have to continue to counter incursions from Ukrainian drones as Kyiv now has the capability to reach targets “deep in Russia” as well as ports on the Baltic Sea. The way to counter those drones, he said, is actually with Ukraine's help as the most effective anti-drone systems have been developed in the country.
Russia Threatens Retaliation
Writing on X, Budrys accused Moscow of “waging smear campaigns” after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, claimed on Tuesday without providing evidence, that Ukraine is preparing to begin launching drone attacks against Russia from the territory of the Baltic countries. The SVR claimed Ukrainian military personnel had already deployed to Latvia and warned that the country’s NATO membership wouldn’t protect it from “just retribution.”
Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman, Heorhii Tykhyi, said Tuesday that none of the Baltic states or Finland have ever allowed Ukraine to use their airspace for strikes against Russia. Budrys called the SVR claim a “transparent act of desperation” and an attempt to sow chaos and distract from a “simple reality” — that Ukraine is hitting Russia's military machine hard. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte praised on Tuesday the alliance’s reaction to the drone incidents, saying that they had been met with “a calm, decisive and proportionate response.” “This is exactly what we planned and prepared for,” Rutte said, blaming Russia’s war on Ukraine for the incursions.
