The risk of some Gulf states becoming embroiled in a direct war with Iran has escalated following reports that the United Arab Emirates secretly launched a major attack on Iran during the recent conflict. Additionally, Kuwait announced the capture of at least four members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attempting to carry out "terrorist attacks" on Bubiyan Island, Kuwait's largest island.
UAE Retaliatory Strikes on Iran
According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE assault on Iran, undertaken as retaliation for Iranian attacks on its facilities, included a strike on Iran's Lazan Island just before the 7 April ceasefire was announced. This development is likely to make the UAE an even clearer target for Iran if the ceasefire collapses and hostilities between the US and Iran resume. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the ceasefire was hanging by a thread due to Iran's failure to make the concessions he seeks over its nuclear programme.
On Tuesday, the Pentagon reported that the cost of the war with Iran had risen to nearly $29 billion, approximately $4 billion higher than the previous estimate provided two weeks earlier.
UAE's Military Involvement
During the earlier fighting that began on 28 February, the UAE was selected as a target for missile and drone strikes by Iran. The country was disproportionately attacked partly due to the severe diplomatic hostility expressed by its rulers towards Iran. The Wall Street Journal report provided details of how this diplomatic hostility extended to military action, citing images allegedly showing French Mirage fighter jets and Chinese Wing Loong drones, both used by the UAE, operating in Iran.
The UAE had hinted around that time that it wanted to mount reprisal operations, not merely defend its oil and port installations. Iran also accused the UAE and Kuwait of being involved in the attacks.
Gulf State Divisions and Diplomatic Strains
The UAE has so far failed to persuade Qatar or Saudi Arabia to do more to counter Iranian attacks or the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran views as necessary retaliation for US attacks. Iran's intelligence assessment has consistently been that some Gulf states allowed their airspace or US bases to be used by American forces to attack Iran.
European nations, including the UK, have also protected Gulf states, but this has largely been presented to domestic audiences as a necessary step to protect neutral Gulf allies that wished to stay out of the conflict. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed that Israel had sent Iron Dome batteries and personnel to improve UAE defences.
Divisions within Gulf states, notably between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have focused on whether Arab anger at Iran's attacks should extend to military reprisals or whether that would provoke a level of Iranian hostility threatening delicate diplomatic relationships. Explaining the Saudi position, Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi ambassador to the US, insisted in an Arab News article that Saudi restraint had been wise. He warned that if Israel succeeded in igniting war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the region would face devastation and destruction, allowing Israel to impose its will.
If Saudi Arabia entered an all-out war, oil facilities on the eastern coast would be destroyed, desalination plants struck, the hajj catastrophically affected, and Vision 2030 projects halted.
Kuwait and IRGC Infiltration
Kuwaiti press published the names of four IRGC commanders who attempted to infiltrate Bubiyan Island on a fishing boat earlier this month. Iranian media has not yet reported the incident, but the UAE issued a statement expressing solidarity with Kuwait in fending off IRGC "hostile and terrorist acts." The Iranian ambassador to Kuwait was summoned by the foreign ministry to hear Kuwait's anger at the attack on its armed forces. Some Kuwaiti reporting highlighted a Chinese rather than US presence on the island.
UAE-Iran Ideological Differences
The UAE's anger towards Iran partly reflects longstanding ideological differences, including its willingness to sign the Abraham Accords normalising relations with Israel, and a belief that the Emirates had been unjustly singled out for disruption by Iran due to those links. The disruption to the UAE includes the near two-year closure of its biggest gas plant due to Iranian attacks last month. Owner Adnoc Gas stated the plant would not be fully repaired until next year, aiming to restore processing capacity to 80% by the end of 2026 and full capacity by 2027.
The UAE stance has also served to build new diplomatic alliances in the Middle East. Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif hailed a quartet of nations avoiding conflict with Iran: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned against "Israeli expansionism," which he called the number one challenge to regional stability and security, adding that the Gulf situation should not lead to losing focus on Gaza.
Iran held talks with Oman on Tuesday about plans to reorganise the administration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including charging services to shipping companies.
