Donald Trump's approach to Taiwan has come under renewed scrutiny following his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where the US president signalled a willingness to discuss American arms sales to the self-governed island. Analysts suggest that Trump's shifting rhetoric reinforces the US policy of 'strategic ambiguity' regarding Taiwan, leaving the island's future uncertain.
Trump's Stance on Taiwan Arms Sales
Before departing for the high-level talks, Trump acknowledged that Taiwan would be a major topic of discussion with Xi. China considers Taiwan a breakaway territory and opposes foreign interference. The US adheres to a 'One China policy', recognising Beijing's position without endorsing Taiwanese sovereignty, yet remains Taiwan's strongest international supporter and is legally bound to help it defend itself.
When asked whether the US should continue selling weapons to Taiwan—a key irritant in US-China relations—Trump declined to answer directly. 'I am going to have that discussion with President Xi,' he stated. 'President Xi would like us not to, and I'll have that discussion. That's one of the many things I'll be talking about.' He emphasised his strong relationship with Xi, adding, 'I think it's going to remain that way.'
Xi's Warning and Strategic Ambiguity
During the summit, Xi issued a stark warning, asserting that mishandling the Taiwan issue could push the US and China into a 'dangerous' situation. 'If handled poorly, the two countries could collide or even enter into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into an extremely dangerous situation,' he said. Xi made clear that Taiwan remains Beijing's 'brightest red line' in bilateral ties.
Trump has previously downplayed fears of military conflict over Taiwan. 'I don't think it'll happen,' he said. 'I think we'll be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi. He knows I don't want that to happen.' However, his openness to discussing arms sales with Beijing fuels concerns about unpredictability.
Taiwan's Response and US Commitments
Taiwan reacted cautiously to Xi's comments. Government spokesperson Michelle Lee pushed back, stating, 'China's military threats are the sole cause' of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. She expressed gratitude for US support, noting close contact with Washington during summit preparations.
Yet questions persist over Trump's commitment. A social media post after his February call with Xi described discussions on Taiwan as 'all very positive', raising fears in Taipei that the island is viewed as a bargaining chip. Trump has also refused to clarify how the US would respond to a Chinese attack, saying, 'I never comment on that. I don't want to reveal my cards.'
Strategic and Economic Stakes
Taiwan produces over 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors, essential for AI, military systems, and global tech supply chains. Jonathan Czin of the Brookings Institution warned that Trump's transactional diplomacy could make Taiwan vulnerable. 'There is definitely concern that he will trade away that arms sale in exchange for something else,' he said.
Taiwanese officials maintain confidence in US support. Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi described the US as a 'dependable ally', stating, 'The US can count on us as much as we can count on the US.'
Longstanding Policy Constraints
The 'Six Assurances' to Taiwan, drafted under Ronald Reagan, prohibit Washington from consulting Beijing on arms sales or pressuring Taipei into negotiations. Any direct bargaining over Taiwan risks conflicting with these commitments. Nonetheless, analysts predict a period of 'managed stability', with Tianchen Xu of the Economist Intelligence Unit noting that 'there will be a guardrail, and things won't spiral out of control.'
