Donald Trump entered the war with Iran with maximalist goals: eliminating the country’s nuclear programme, destroying its ballistic missile programme and ending its support for regional military groups including Hezbollah and Hamas. He exits it with Iran’s word not to build a bomb and to hold further nuclear discussions, no mention in writing of the ballistic missile programme and with Hezbollah celebrating a “victory” as the memorandum of understanding instituted a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Iran’s key asset proved to be the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that almost every previous simulation of the war predicted would be quickly cut off by Iran. To reopen the strait, the administration was forced to fold on its broader goals or face what Trump called a “worldwide depression”. Barbara Leaf, a former US assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, said the US had started the war with “disastrously unrealistic assessments of the regime’s resilience”.
The Trump administration has been skittish about publishing the full text of the memorandum of understanding. The reasoning is clear: many in Trump’s own party will hate this deal. Outgoing US senator Bill Cassidy called it the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades”, while Senator Thom Tillis said the 14 points published were “not sufficient for me to say it’s a good deal”.
Trump has for years attacked the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, saying the former president had sent over “pallets of cash” to bribe Iran. But when it came time for Trump to make his own peace, he found himself justifying the potential turnover of a far larger set of assets, backing a ceasefire in Lebanon, and allowing Iran and Oman to discuss the future of the strait. “It’s not our money, it’s their money, and we froze it at a certain point in time,” Trump said of the frozen Iranian assets. “I guess we’re going to have to give it back.”
The memorandum was ultimately a pragmatic decision by the Trump administration that the conflict must end as quickly as possible despite the political cost. Leaf said she was “deeply relieved that this ill-conceived war appears to be ending”, but added that there was “little to ensure that the administration won’t find itself slipping back into conflict”.
