The rift between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has intensified, with Trump claiming Kyiv does not want peace. Ukraine, however, insists it wants an end to the slaughter of its people but refuses to surrender to Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine fears that giving up territory to Putin would not stop, as the Russian leader reportedly wants the entire country and would continue pressure on NATO. Trump, described as an admirer of Putin, believes Ukraine is obstructing his relationship with the Kremlin and his ability to claim he ended the war.
US Withholds Intelligence
It appears the US has again strangled vital intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which serves as a warning of incoming missiles. Ukraine receives intelligence from more than a dozen countries, including the UK, on a 24-hour basis, using surveillance and other intelligence to aid its defence.
On incoming cruise missiles, Ukraine might have up to an hour's warning to take cover. Cheaper drones can fly for hours and are relatively easy to intercept, apart from jet-powered drones which travel at over 300mph.
However, a recent deadly attack came with no warning, according to Zelensky, involving about 16 ballistic missiles, some of the most deadly in Putin's arsenal apart from nuclear.
Ballistic Missile Threat
Ballistic missiles travel at up to Mach 20 or 20,000mph on an extreme arc, re-entering the atmosphere at incredibly fast speeds. This makes them difficult to track and intercept, with each stage of flight becoming harder to target.
They are most vulnerable when first fired and accelerating, requiring a surface-to-air missile (SAM) to shoot down. Mid-stage interception is possible with a highly-sophisticated SAM but not certain, and the terminal phase is increasingly hard to hit.
Ukraine's civilians might have only two minutes to reach shelters, and any delay in pushing out intelligence will cost lives. This information on ballistic missiles is believed to be currently provided only by the US, which has a constant feed of satellite intelligence and surveillance.
Winter Concerns and Political Calculations
Winter is approaching, and Kyiv faces an appalling season of -20C temperatures again, as Putin prepares to rain down jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles on civilians, aiming to freeze them into submission.
Zelensky's advisors are watching the build-up to the mid-terms, which could weaken Trump immensely and force him to listen to his Republican party and show less warmth towards Putin. Europe and the rest of NATO are trying to scramble support for Ukraine to fill the intelligence gap left by the US.
Trump's actions are eroding America's credibility on the world stage, removing trust built up over decades of Cold War defence against Russia. Zelensky is gambling that Trump's power will be severely limited after the mid-terms, while Putin makes merry with his manipulations of Trump while he is able.
