Commentators are increasingly concerned that Donald Trump has locked himself into a forever war with Iran, throwing away the key to any possible exit. Rather than an off-ramp or a clear strategy to conclude hostilities, the US president has constructed a never-ending maze of negotiations, leading many to question whether he genuinely desires a resolution.
The search for an exit strategy is underway from Westminster to the Straits of Hormuz. British Prime Minister Olly Robbins and the Foreign Office are scrambling for a way out, while Iran and the US seek an off-ramp, as do Presidents Zelensky and Putin in their own conflict.
Trump recently extended his ceasefire in the Gulf and Hormuz Strait without setting a new deadline. On Truth Social, he wrote: "We have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal." However, just hours later, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired on three freighters in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, seizing two vessels and moving them into Iranian waters. The ships—the Epaminondas (Greek-flagged), the Euphoria (UAE-flagged), and the MSC Francesca (Panamanian-flagged)—were targeted, with the Francesca hit only six nautical miles off the Oman coast.
Immediate prospects for a successful exit strategy appear bleak. Vice President Vance postponed a trip to Islamabad aboard Air Force 2 for talks. Trump accused the IRGC commanders, who now run Iran's military state, of failing to coordinate effectively. The new IRGC commander, Ahmad Vahidi, appears to be deputising for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was severely wounded in the February 28 bombing that killed his father and may be incapacitated.
An Exit Through Law, Not War
Despite ongoing shootings and blockades across the Gulf, an exit strategy is available for both sides, particularly the US. The path to peace must lie through law, not war. Threatening to destroy infrastructure or bomb Iran "back to the stone ages" only exacerbates the situation. Neither side desires a return to full-blown conflict; neither can afford it, lacking sufficient stocks of sophisticated precision strike missiles and air defence systems to sustain a prolonged summer campaign.
An exit strategy must be more than a Houdini-like escape plan. It requires a series of actions and agreements to ensure durability. Off-the-cuff deals, favoured by the Trump team, rarely last beyond the first tweet or media briefing. A pact with Iran will demand extensive work on details, including line-by-line treaty scrutiny, and may involve months or even years of negotiations. The 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which Trump abandoned in 2018, took nearly two years to negotiate.
Surprising Resilience of Iranian Forces
The US, Israel, and Gulf Arab nations have been surprised by the stamina of the IRGC's coastal and commando forces, as well as the depth of their arsenals including attack boats, rockets, missiles, and drones. These forces can effectively hold the Gulf and Straits hostage. However, their weakness lies in Iran's population of 91 million, who are increasingly restive and angry due to a ruined economy. The regime cannot sustain this situation indefinitely. The IRGC has reinforced its Basij militia with ultra-loyalists from Shia militias in Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, yet reports persist of child soldiers as young as 12 commanding checkpoints in the depressed east.
Steps Toward a Peaceful Exit
The first step must be an armistice—a monitored truce ensuring free passage through international waters in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. This should be followed by an incremental peace negotiation plan, culminating in a concluding treaty.
The rolling peace programme would address three main areas, requiring delicate negotiations over many months. (The US estimates at least six months to clear mines Iran claims to have planted but cannot recover.)
- Sanctions, Trade, and Investment: Iran would seek relief and assistance for reconstruction.
- Arms Control: Covering the entire Gulf region, focusing on Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and long-range weapons.
- Nuclear Programme: A new arrangement on Iran's nuclear activities and enriched uranium stocks.
An international conference on Iran, the Levant, and the wider Gulf—the new Middle East—should eventually be convened, including Russia and China as participants or observers. Human, civic, and diplomatic rights must also be on the table.
The Need for Sustained Willpower
Such an exit strategy is achievable but requires sustained willpower and intellect, not bluster and threats—qualities Trump lacks. The Pentagon has stated it will take "six months" to clear the Strait, taking the situation past the November midterms, while Trump says there is "no time frame."
At home and abroad, we appear trapped in a new mode of diplomacy reminiscent of MC Escher's endless staircases. The rhetoric from Whitehall, Washington, and Mar-a-Lago leads nowhere. What is needed is an exit strategy grounded in law, not war. Otherwise, the prospects are dire: increased violence at sea and choke points, and a cratering global economy.
