A leaked classified report by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) has cast doubt on the success of Donald Trump's military strikes against Iran, warning that the operation could lead to disaster. The report, completed a week before the joint US-Israeli operation that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggests that regime change is unlikely and that Iran's leadership will follow protocols to preserve the regime.
According to three sources familiar with the findings, Iran is expected to respond to Khamenei's death by maintaining internal stability, with opposition forces unlikely to seize control. The NIC, which bridges 18 intelligence agencies with policymakers, assessed that the US would not be able to overthrow the Iranian government. This contradicts Trump's public confidence that the regime will soon fall.
Trump has demanded 'unconditional surrender' and insisted on a role in selecting Iran's next leader, telling NBC News: 'We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job.' However, experts say such demands are unrealistic. Holly Dagres of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy noted that bending to Trump would go against 'everything they stand for.' Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution added that no other force within Iran can confront the regime's remaining power.
Iran's Parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, defiantly rejected cooperation, writing on X: 'The fate of dear Iran... will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by Epstein’s gang.' The White House maintained that the Iranian regime is 'being absolutely crushed' and reiterated goals to destroy Iran's military capabilities. Despite the intelligence warning, Trump has vowed to continue strikes, with the operation now in its second week.
