Analysis: Putin let his desperation show with an unexpected claim that his war with Ukraine is ending. Putin is showing increasing signs of weakness while Ukraine grows in confidence and the war turns Kyiv's way, writes world affairs editor Sam Kiley.
Putin's Claim and Europe's Reaction
Pausing, turning, and pointing like hounds catching a new scent, Europe's leaders are picking up a blood trail from the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin's forces were once the hunters; now they are bleeding, and Ukraine has the whiff of victory in its nose. In the latest sign that Ukraine's systematic new policy of trying to kill at least 50,000 Russians a month is working, Putin has told his people that the end of the war he started is near. And, in an act that was both desperate and doomed, he suggested that Gerhard Schroeder, the former German chancellor, could act as Europe's envoy in talks.
A long-standing ally and friend of Russia's president, the former German chancellor has also had deep ties to Russian companies like the oil giant Gazprom. The idea of him being a European envoy was immediately dismissed. The reaction is best summed up by Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief: "It's clear why Putin wants him to be the person - so that actually... he would be sitting on both sides of the table. If we give the right to Russia to appoint a negotiator on our behalf... that would not be very wise."
Desperation and Military Stalemate
In fact, there is every sign that this was a desperate act from the Russian leader. He has enjoyed the backing of the Trump administration, which has adopted Russia's side in previous talks and cut all military aid to Kyiv for over a year. But his forces have stalled and have lost ground in his campaign to take Ukraine. On the front lines, there has been a steady growth in resolve during the winter, moving into outright confidence among many soldiers who have enjoyed a turn in their fortunes due to Ukraine's dominance in drone warfare and successful long-range attacks deep into Russia.
Ukraine controls the Black Sea, where it defeated the Russian navy more than two years ago. Now Putin's own parades are muted affairs. His last, the 9 May Victory Parade to mark Russia's triumph in WW2, went ahead only after he had agreed a ceasefire with Kyiv; he was rightly fearful that Ukraine's home-made missiles and drones were capable of raining down on his parade. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, mocked his enemy by issuing a decree, including the Red Square coordinates, ordering his forces to observe a ceasefire in a parody of a Kremlin-style order from the top.
Ukraine's Growing Confidence
"I believe that things have started to change also after the harsh winter. We have survived one of the most difficult winters in our history, despite Russian desperate attempts to destroy our critical infrastructure," said Olekandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian parliament. "On the front, Putin has failed and strategically he is losing. Ukraine has more deep strikes into Russian territory which is rather humiliating for Putin and Russia." Ukraine has been hitting refineries and airfields over 100 km inside Russia, taken on targets around Moscow, and conducted a series of assassinations against generals in Putin's army inside the Russian capital.
Since the beginning of this year, the level of medium-range attacks by Ukraine against Russian logistics in occupied territory has surged by 400 per cent. Ukraine hit 65 logistics and ammunition depots, 33 drone control points and workshops, as well as 17 troop command posts in both occupied Ukraine and in Russian border regions, Kyiv's Ministry of Defence said. The results have been incremental gains like the reported recapture of Kupyansk, a strategic town on the Donetsk River where Russian forces were cut off and surrounded. They have also been crucial in grinding down Russian air defences to allow for Ukraine's long-range Flamingo missile to hit military-industrial sites, including defence manufacturing facilities in the city of Cheboksary, about 1,500 km deep inside Russia.
Ukraine's Strategy to Collapse Russian Army
Ukraine's aim is to collapse the Russian army without having to assault it head-on. The families of Russian soldiers are paid $165,000 compensation if the soldiers are killed. If Ukraine manages to kill 50,000 a month, then Moscow's bill would be $8.25 billion a month. By wiping out its logistics and drone bases, the aim is to undermine Moscow's command and control systems so badly that Russian troops abandon the fight altogether.
Before Russia's president claimed that he saw an end to the war soon, the EU's Kallas had made it clear Europe was not interested in acceding to Moscow's demands ahead of any talks. "We should not humiliate ourselves by being the demandeurs, 'please we beg you to talk to us', but we should put them in a position where they actually go from pretending to negotiate to actually negotiate," Kallas said. Europe is taking a more robust line because it can, because Ukraine is gaining military momentum and a powerful voice in international affairs.
Ukraine as Security Provider
"Ukraine has stopped presenting itself only as a victim and increasingly presents itself as a security provider. Zelensky is now selling Ukraine's drone expertise abroad: Nearly 20 countries are interested in drone deals with Ukraine, with several agreements already signed, including in the Gulf. Second, Ukraine has become... has become by far the most innovative and adaptive defence industrial lab in Europe," said Gregoire Roos, Director of Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House.
