The Middle East is on the brink of a wider conflict after United States President Donald Trump issued a defiant ultimatum to Tehran, demanding that Iran accept a deal to end hostilities within two days or face renewed American strikes. In response, Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that if the US resumes firing, the war could be deliberately spread well beyond the region, unleashing 'unimaginable' horror.
IRGC Threatens Regional Escalation
In a stark statement, the IRGC—Iran's most shadowy military organisation—declared: 'Should aggression against Iran be repeated, the regional war that was promised will this time extend beyond the region, and our crushing blows in places you can scarcely imagine will reduce you to ashes.' The group emphasised that despite attacks by 'two of the most expensive armies in the world'—referring to the United States and Israel—Iran has yet to deploy its full strategic capacity.
The full IRGC statement read: 'Although they attacked us with the full capabilities of two of the most expensive armies in the world, we did not deploy all the capacities of the Islamic Revolution against them.' This warning came after Trump threatened a new US attack that would deliver a 'big hit' to Tehran if it refuses to agree on a lasting deal to end the fighting.
Vance Warns of Nuclear Arms Race
The exchange of threats followed a warning from US Vice President JD Vance, who stated that allowing Iran to possess a nuclear weapon would trigger a dangerous atomic arms race. 'Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,' Vance said, praising US Armed Forces for their 'degradation' of Iran's military capabilities during weeks of conflict since March. He added that Iran having a nuclear weapon would lead other nations to 'scramble' for their own, setting off a 'nuclear arms race' that would 'make us all much less safe'.
Vance elaborated: 'Iran would really be the first domino in what would set off a nuclear arms race all over the world.' On Tuesday, Trump warned that US attacks on Iran would resume in 'two or three days' if Tehran's regime does not capitulate to his demands.
Sticking Points in Negotiations
Major obstacles have complicated peace negotiations. Iran insists that Lebanon and Hezbollah be included in any settlement, a demand that the US and Israel have rejected. Additionally, it is believed that Tehran may have communicated through Pakistani intermediaries its willingness to release highly-enriched uranium to Russia rather than the United States, as Washington has demanded.
Iran seeks a cessation of all attacks in Lebanon and its home country in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting sanctions. However, America and Israel have not agreed to include Lebanon in any deal, and the two sides continue to negotiate via Pakistan as an intermediary.
Fragile Ceasefire Under Strain
Trump claims that 'serious' talks may be forthcoming, even though Israeli and US forces are believed to be preparing for a major offensive after five weeks of a fragile ceasefire. Washington has also been urged by Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to hold off, as they believe Iran may agree to a deal that precludes developing nuclear weapons.
Despite the ceasefire, Lebanese Hezbollah and Israeli forces have exchanged missiles in recent weeks. America and Israel refuse to concede to Iran's demand that Hezbollah be included in any long-term peace agreement, while Iran insists on this condition as a prerequisite for any deal.
