When Assimi Goita, the leader of Mali's military junta, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin last summer, it symbolized Moscow's commanding influence over Mali at the expense of the West. As the two leaders spoke, roughly 2,000 Russian troops were propping up the regime in the landlocked desert country, part of a broader Russian push for influence across the Sahel region.
Rebel Offensive Exposes Vulnerabilities
However, a wave of coordinated attacks by jihadist militants and a separatist group over the weekend has exposed the limits of Moscow's reach and military might. Rebel fighters launched one of their most effective assaults in years against Russian-backed authorities, with fighting continuing into Monday. The full picture remains unclear, but the rebels have achieved at least one major victory: Russia's Africa Corps, the successor to the Wagner group, announced on Monday it had pulled out of Kidal, a strategically important northern town.
"This crisis is definitely affecting the credibility of Russia's interventions in the region," said Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim of the International Crisis Group thinktank.
Regional Shift from West to Russia
Mali's eastern neighbors, Burkina Faso and Niger, expelled French and American forces following coups in 2022 and 2023 respectively, turning to Moscow. The three countries have formed a Russian-backed bloc across the heart of the Sahel. But it is in Mali that Russia's presence runs deepest. "Questions will be raised now over whether the Russians can provide the kind of solution that African nations facing insurgencies are looking for," Ibrahim added.
The Africa Corps has acknowledged casualties, evacuating wounded and heavy equipment. Military bloggers close to the Russian defense ministry reported that a Russian helicopter was shot down near Gao, killing those onboard. The losses extend to the highest levels of the Malian government: the junta confirmed late Sunday that Defense Minister Sadio Camara, a key architect of the partnership with Russia, died of wounds from a suicide attack on his residence.
Russia's Model in Africa Stumbles
When Mali's military seized power in 2021, Camara was the driving force behind the country's shift in alliances. The junta expelled France and turned to Russia as its primary political and military backer. Moscow sought to replicate a model used elsewhere in Africa: offering security support and political backing in return for access to resources.
The junta initially turned to the Wagner Group, with around 1,000 mercenaries arriving in late 2021 and helping secure battlefield gains. In November 2023, Wagner-backed forces retook Kidal. But Wagner's fortunes shifted after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Kremlin moved to bring the mercenary empire under control. Wagner was wound down, and its fighters were absorbed into the Africa Corps, a new structure under direct command of Russia's defense ministry.
The restructured force has struggled to match Wagner's effectiveness, analysts say, with its most capable forces fighting in Ukraine or killed there. The Africa Corps first ran into serious trouble in summer 2024, when up to 50 Russian soldiers were ambushed and killed in Mali. "Africa Corps is nowhere near as good as its predecessor," said Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner commander. "Morale is low, commanders are often not qualified, and the soldiers are poorly trained."
Symbolic Setback and Cautious Russian Response
The loss of Kidal marks a sharp reversal. "Losing Kidal after first recapturing it is a major symbolic setback for the Russians," Ibrahim said. But he added that without Russian backing, the junta's losses would likely have been heavier. "It would have been much more catastrophic for the military regime if the Russians were not stationed in the big cities."
Moscow has struck a cautious tone. The foreign ministry issued a brief statement condemning the attacks but offered little detail on Russia's role. However, state media and pro-Kremlin Telegram channels emphasized Moscow's involvement, crediting Russian forces with helping to hold the rebels at bay. The Russian newspaper Kommersant wrote: "Largely thanks to the fighters of the Russian armed forces' Africa Corps stationed in Mali, most of the attacks were repelled."
