Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, hoping for a 'big fat hug' in thanks for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts predict he will not receive such gratitude, as he has failed to end the throttling of Beijing's oil supplies. This outcome is seen as beneficial for China but detrimental for Taiwan, the West, US allies, and democracies globally.
The US president arrives in Beijing exasperated by his inability to achieve any of his war aims in Iran, having been humiliated by a weaker but dogged regime in Tehran. This shift in geopolitical dynamics is likely to advantage China, which has done little to bring it about. Key to understanding this is Trump's psychology: vain and peevish, he blundered into a war with Iran alongside Israel and now seeks a way out without appearing weak.
Fiona Hill, a former national security adviser to Trump, noted that Trump craves recognition from authoritarian leaders like Xi and Putin. 'He wants to be recognised by absolutely everybody who matters,' she said. Xi is likely to offer Trump the 'gold sovereign' of association, but it is unlikely Trump will extract any advantage for America from this gilded club.
China has helped arm Iran, is Russia's most important military supplier in Ukraine, and controls critical minerals for global technologies. It imports nearly 50% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz and benefits from discounted sanctioned oil. Trump has asked China to stop sending weapons to Iran, but Beijing has taken a balanced approach, calling for an end to the conflict.
Trump's main option for exiting the war without total loss of face may involve Iran sending its nuclear materials to China for safekeeping. In return, Beijing is likely to demand the end of the $11bn military aid programme for Taiwan and free rein in the South China Sea, where it has been building artificial islands. These concessions would give China unlimited power.
