Ireland's premier has proposed that a chairperson be appointed to oversee research into potential future scenarios including Irish unification within five years of a referendum.
The Press Association understands that Micheál Martin shared a briefing document with his Fianna Fáil parliamentary party on Tuesday, outlining three points of focus in relation to issues involving the future of the island as well as North-South and Ireland/UK relations. The document says these “explain the priorities which will be followed in the coming period”.
Futures Study Initiative
One of the three main points on the briefing Mr Martin gave to Fianna Fáil backbenchers was “a new initiative to define and develop evidence base for debate on future constitutional frameworks”. It poses the idea of establishing the Futures Study Initiative (FSI), which would gather informed cross-community voices to explore three potential future core scenarios for the island.
The FSI will seek expert opinion and input from political parties and activist groups on constitutional and legal change, issues relating to the convergence on economy, health and education as well as matters pertaining to security, symbols and culture.
Three Scenarios
The first scenario outlined in the briefing document to be explored by the FSI is “a single unitary republic, governed by institutions primarily based in Dublin which would be fully in place within a maximum of five years of a unification referendum”. The second consideration would be the outcomes of an all-island state with devolved government in Northern Ireland, “in a manner similar to that which currently operates under Strand One of the Good Friday Agreement”. The third scenario would effectively be the status quo of long-term co-operation and shared development in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement without any constitutional change.
It is understood the FSI would seek to provide an objective, independent knowledge base to be used to inform debate, and would not be charged with recommending a specific single proposal for Northern Ireland's governance. The briefing document shared by the Taoiseach said: “Led by people who are acknowledged as eminent and independent, the initiative would summarise current knowledge, identify knowledge gaps or points of significant contestation and commission work to address these gaps.”
Reform and Shared Island
It is understood that the Taoiseach also briefed backbenchers on discussions for reform of Strand One of the Good Friday Agreement. The landmark political deal, signed on April 10, 1998, that largely brought an end to three decades of violent conflict in Northern Ireland known as The Troubles, is structured around three core interlocking administrative and political components, known as strands. Strand One deals with the devolved power-sharing assembly of government in Northern Ireland based in Stormont, Belfast.
It is understood that backbenchers were briefed that Fianna Fáil supports reform of the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement and that evidence suggests that there is a clear need and public demand to see them operate more effectively. “A majority of the public believes that the institutions are not working effectively to address the social and economic challenges faced by Northern Ireland,” the document says.
It is understood that the other core point the Taoiseach briefed his party colleagues on was the Government's need to continue developing and delivering the Shared Island Initiative. The initiative established in 2020 has seen the most significant investment in the history of the North-South relationship, backed by a Shared Island Fund of two billion euro. According to the briefing document, to date, more than one billion euro of the fund has been assigned.
