Nearly three years after General Sir Roly Walker warned that the UK could face World War 3 within "three years time," that deadline is now just months away. The timeframe he set expires at the start of next year, following his ominous prediction made in July 2024.
Walker's Warning and the 'Axis of Upheaval'
Speaking in July 2024, Walker described Russian President Vladimir Putin as "very, very dangerous" and said Putin wanted "retribution" against the UK regardless of the outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He pointed to an "axis of upheaval" involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and explained: "The point here is when you think they [the Russians] are down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance."
He predicted that geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia and China could culminate in a global conflict by 2027 or 2028. He continued: "That is why you get to this point by... 2027-2028 this convergence may have reached some sort of mutual singularity and your ability to deal with them in isolation - a specific crisis that can be managed by the rules-based system - I think is significantly diminished."
Urgency to Restore Credible Hard Power
Walker added: "A problem in one area is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and therefore it is a global problem looked at from different perspectives around the world. I am saying we are not on an inexorable path to war but what we do have is an absolute urgency to restore credible hard power in order to underwrite deterrence."
At the time, he warned that "We have just enough time to prepare, act, and assure the re-establishment of credible land forces to support a strategy of deterrence." Nearly three years on, with time seemingly running out, political debates continue about funding for the UK's armed forces and how much more money is needed.
Government's Defence Spending Commitments
Over the weekend, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he wanted to "give our Armed Forces the funding and equipment you need to keep this country safe, as well as the good housing, training, and support you deserve." He added: "This is a world where once again it's become necessary to stand up for our values and stand alongside our allies."
The government aims to reach 3% of GDP in the next parliament and scale up to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 to align with NATO targets, a timeline that falls eight years after the predicted conflict window.
