Russia is constructing and expanding military bases along its northern border with NATO, prompting warnings from experts that the alliance must be prepared to deter or defeat a potential threat. Satellite imagery obtained by Nordic broadcasters and a Baltic news portal on June 10 reveals new construction and enlargement of bases near Finland, Sweden, and the Baltic states, according to the Institute for the Study of Warfare (ISW).
Details of the Base Expansions
Intelligence officers and senior military officials told Danish outlet DR that Russian forces are "engaging in preparation for conflict." Ex-Finnish intelligence officer Marko Eklund stated that Moscow plans to station around 115,000 soldiers at the northern border with NATO after the war in Ukraine ends. Russian forces have begun building a new base in Novaya Vilza near Petrozavodsk, capable of housing 4,000 to 6,000 personnel. Finnish army chief Pasi Valimaki told Swedish broadcaster SVT that Finland expects 80,000 Russian soldiers to be stationed on its border.
The ISW reported that a source on the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed the command is relocating elements of the 44th Army Corps to the Republic of Karelia, with command post elements waiting in Luga, Leningrad Oblast, to move to Petrozavodsk once construction is complete. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on June 11 that at least 19 barracks, infrastructure, and storage facilities are being modernized in Pechenga, just 11 kilometers from the Finnish border on the Kola Peninsula. Moscow is also expanding a naval infantry base and armored vehicle and landing-craft fleet near Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast.
Impact and NATO Response
An attack on NATO could trigger Article 5, which considers an armed attack on one member as an attack on all. The ISW warned: "Russia is establishing these bases to support potential future military actions against NATO, though such ground operations remain unlikely, as most of Russia’s combat power is in Ukraine. The establishment of these bases will support Russian efforts to more rapidly project forces against NATO following the end of active fighting in Ukraine, however, and NATO must be prepared to deter and, if necessary, defeat a Russian threat against its borders relatively quickly following the end of combat in Ukraine."
British officials have cautioned that an attack on NATO could occur as early as the next decade. Tan Dhesi MP, Chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee, said on June 30: "Given the rising threat level, including warnings from the Prime Minister that NATO needs to be ready for an attack by Russia by 2030, the UK needs to properly invest in our defence and meet the moment." Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer unveiled the Defence Investment Plan last week, promising to increase defence spending by £15 billion and modernize the armed forces for drone attacks and Kremlin threats. A decision on sourcing £4.7 billion will be made at the autumn Budget.
