Admiral Sir Keith Blount, NATO's former deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, has warned that Britain risks losing its senior influence within the alliance unless it accelerates defence spending. He said the Government must set out a “clear pathway” to meeting NATO spending targets or risk the UK becoming a “following nation” rather than a leader.
Warning from Former Top Commander
Admiral Sir Keith, who retired last week after a 40-year naval career, told The Times: “The UK is a nuclear power. The UK still has this bulwark of reputation and influence that is clear for all the alliance to see. But if the other larger nations of the alliance outperform us in terms of meeting their capability targets, meeting the defence investment pledge, it is only natural the allies, as a completely rational body of nations, see those nations as the ones who deserve greater influence.”
His warning comes amid growing concern among allies over the UK’s rearmament plans and deepening political uncertainty over future defence spending. Labour figures including Andy Burnham have reportedly signalled support for increasing military budgets above the £13.5bn outlined in the delayed Defence Investment Plan.
Political Tensions Over Defence Plans
The row has intensified tensions between senior figures and Downing Street over Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to push ahead with publishing the plan before stepping down in July. Sir Keir has previously pledged to raise defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by the next parliament, but has yet to explain how that target will be achieved.
NATO has set a long-term target for members to spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on core defence and 1.5 per cent on wider security-related spending by 2035. Current UK plans would see spending reach around 2.68 per cent of GDP by 2030, with Treasury projections suggesting the 3 per cent threshold may not be met until 2034–35.
UK Falling Behind Allies
By contrast, German officials have indicated that Berlin could reach NATO’s combined 5 per cent target well before 2035, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz seeks to expand the country’s military strength. The UK currently ranks near the bottom of NATO league tables for meeting rearmament commitments, placing 31st out of 32 members in terms of progress towards capability targets. Only Iceland, which has no standing military, is below it.
The UK has held NATO’s deputy commander role continuously since 1951, a position historically seen as a key source of influence alongside the United States, which holds the top military post. However, defence sources have suggested that sustained underinvestment could open the door for other major European powers, including Germany or France, to push for greater leadership roles in the future.
Urgent Need for Action
Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, the head of Britain’s armed forces, recently warned that the UK must be prepared to go “toe to toe” with Russia. The Government is expected to publish its Defence Investment Plan ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, on July 7.
