Britain will be placed in greater danger if the US-Iran war erupts again in the coming weeks, as the Middle East prepares for a return to conflict, according to the latest analysis.
Additional pressure from Russia over UK support for Ukraine, the threat of Islamist terrorism and rising far-right aggression are combining to create a perfect storm of escalating threats against the UK. Assessments seen by the Daily Mirror point towards another round of US-Iran fighting, with Russia and China assisting Tehran, despite President Donald Trump's cordial relations with their leaders.
Amid this instability, Trump may be aligning with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping while they back plots that lead to US troop deaths in the Middle East. The UK's limited support for the US will not shield it from a renewed threat of Iranian sabotage, espionage and indirect terror attacks carried out by its proxies.
RAF Typhoon Deployment and Regional Tensions
On Tuesday it emerged that the UK will deploy RAF Typhoon jets to defend Saudi Arabia in response to escalating Houthi missile and drone attacks. The defensive mission, authorised by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, will help protect Saudi cities and infrastructure from aerial strikes by the Iran-backed group.
This follows Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital Riyadh and on energy sites along the country's coast. Iran is preparing for major US strikes and for war to resume, moving air-defence guns around the country and placing its military on high alert for a fresh conflict.
President Trump has vowed nothing will happen with the Iran crisis until after the mid-term elections, which could weaken his position if Republicans perform as poorly as expected. He also warned last week that he is considering launching America's biggest bomb - the Massive Ordnance Air Burst, or Mother of All Bombs - at Iranian targets.
Intelligence Warnings and Arrests
One intelligence assessment warns: "A restrictive approach to offensive military participation does not automatically remove the possibility of hostile activity directed at British interests, particularly where the United Kingdom continues to cooperate with American forces and regional partners."
Separately, seven suspects remain on police bail after being seized on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts in connection with an incident at RAF Fairford last month. British intelligence has repeatedly warned that Iran represents a major threat to the UK, as its operatives are suspected of numerous plots against the country.
Ken McCallum, head of MI5, recently warned that Iran posed a major threat to the UK, while Russia remained the biggest. The intelligence chief said there had been 50 arrests in the last year over Iran-linked activities.
Much of this Iranian aggression has been aimed at Jewish communities, Sir Ken added, and also at "harder targets, like military sites". He did not mention arrests at RAF Fairford directly during his speech, but told reporters afterwards the incident was "not unique". He added: "We have seen Iranian interest beyond RAF Fairford in the UK."
After the initial five men were seized by police at RAF Fairford, which houses US bombers, the US removed its B1 warplanes back to the States.
Strategic Risks and Regional Alerts
A resumption of the US-Iran war will put the UK under extra pressure, even though it is already exposed to threats from Islamist terror and Russian spies. The report added: "Effective readiness requires adequate personnel, equipment availability, maintenance, logistics, training and sustainable industrial replenishment.
"Simultaneous commitments to NATO, European security and Middle Eastern force protection may create competing demands. The resulting strategic risk is not necessarily overextension at any given moment, but insufficient resilience if several demands intensify together."
Neighbouring states in the firing line have issued major alerts in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel and elsewhere in preparation for a US escalation. One report seen by the Mirror says Iran is moving its Khordad air defence systems around Tehran in preparation.
A British source told the Mirror: "The analysis from the States is pessimistic. The US has no meaningful plan or coherent strategy. Military and intelligence people are frustrated, bewildered and embarrassed."
Former FBI Middle East expert Ali Soufan says in his latest assessment: "Prospects for a diplomatic solution fade, regional leaders are bracing for the US-Iran war to resume." He underlined the news that Iran is intensifying attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping, and added that Iran is prepared to escalate with its regional proxies, saying: "Iran is sure to tap its regional allies, including the Houthis and Iran-aligned Shia militia in Iraq."
