Experts have warned of 'something big' taking place as Vladimir Putin showcased his nuclear arsenal again. The Russian leader presided over joint military drills in Belarus alongside his counterpart Alexander Lukashenko this week. Russian arsenals in Belarus include its latest intermediate-range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system.
Nuclear Drills and Readiness
On Thursday, Putin stated it was 'important to further boost the level of readiness of strategic and tactical nuclear forces,' as drills including the firing of a hypersonic missile were carried out. The exercises involved over 200 missile launchers, 73 surface warships, 13 submarines, 140 aircraft, and 64,000 troops, according to the Russian Defence Ministry. The drills, which the ministry said were for the 'preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression,' included eight submarines armed with nuclear-laden intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
The manoeuvres featured a broad assortment of short and medium-range weapons. Unlike intercontinental missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons intended for use against troops on the battlefield are less powerful. They include aerial bombs and warheads for short and medium-range missiles and artillery munitions.
Russian armed forces test-fired Yars and Sineva ICBMs, as well as medium-range sea-launched Zircon and air-launched Kinzhal missiles, noting that all missiles hit their designated practice targets. Belarusian troops test-fired a short-range Iskander ballistic missile inside Russia.
Expert Warnings
'Something big is taking place, something that will be significant for international politics in general, and for mass media, including the very supply of nuclear arms,' warned Bremen University researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin, speaking to Al-Jazeera.
Putin has repeatedly deployed 'sabre-rattling' rhetoric involving the use of nuclear weapons since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He has stated that Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, but would allow its ally to select targets in case of conflict.
Since the full-scale war, the Russian president changed Moscow's nuclear doctrine so that any nation's conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. This change, clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons, appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Moscow's nuclear arsenal.
NATO and Ukrainian Responses
The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be met with a 'devastating' response, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week. The drills were a response to a 'threat of aggression,' according to Minsk and Moscow, though the perceived threat was unclear.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia may try to 'drag Belarus into an expansion of the war.' Russia's presence in Belarus created an obvious pressure point for Kyiv, and Zelensky stated there are 'additional tasks for our intelligence regarding this threat.' Belarus was previously used as a launch point for Russian forces in February 2022.
However, warnings of a new offensive into northern Ukraine have been tempered. The Kyiv-based Penta think-tank said the number of Russian forces in Belarus is 'insufficient' for a new attack.
Increasing Pressure on Putin
Putin is facing what analysts suggest is an increasingly tricky situation in Ukraine. His attempts to sell the war to the public as a far-away 'special operation' could be increasingly undermined by continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure. There is further pressure at home, with Russian discontent at a crackdown on internet access and problems in the war. Last month, Ukraine gained more territory than it lost for the first time in two years, and the US-based National Security Journal reported that Russia has lost 'more soldiers than it can replace' for five months in a row.
Its invasion continues to falter, but there is so far little to suggest its growing manpower problem is at a critical stage. The same can be said for the Russian economy, although its slowing down has clearly irked Putin, who blasted officials for not coming up with a plan.
Recent Attacks and Casualties
Overnight, a Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at another Russian oil terminal, local officials in Russia's Krasnodar region said on Saturday, in what appeared to be the latest attack on Moscow's vital oil industry. Authorities in the city of Novorossiysk said falling drone debris sparked a fire at an oil terminal, injuring two people. Russia's Astra news outlet reported that Ukrainian drones struck the Sheskharis oil terminal and depot, the terminus for Russian state-controlled pipeline company Transneft's main oil pipelines in the region. Images posted by Astra appeared to show smoke rising above the oil terminal, but they could not be verified.
On Saturday afternoon, Ukraine's General Staff said its forces had struck the Sheskharis oil terminal overnight. 'The facility provides shipment of oil and oil products for export and is involved in meeting the needs of the Russian army,' the General Staff wrote on Telegram, adding that Ukrainian forces had also hit a tanker in the Black Sea belonging to Russia's so-called 'shadow fleet.'
Ukraine has expanded its mid- and long-range strike capabilities, deploying drone and missile technology developed domestically to battle Russia's four-year-old invasion. Attacks on Russian oil assets that play a key part in funding the invasion have become almost daily occurrences.
Meanwhile, the death toll from a Ukrainian drone strike overnight into Friday on a college dormitory building in Starobilsk, a city in Ukraine's Russia-occupied Luhansk region, rose to 18, the press service of Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations said. According to the ministry, 60 people were wounded in the attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday denounced the attack on the dormitory as a 'crime' and ordered the military to submit its proposals for retaliation. He stated there were no military or law enforcement facilities near the college.
At a UN Security Council emergency meeting on the strike, held at the request of Russia, Ukrainian Ambassador Andrii Melnyk denied his Russian counterpart's accusations of war crimes, calling them a 'pure propaganda show' and asserting that the May 22 operations 'exclusively targeted the Russian war machine.'
