Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis has called on Prime Minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham to dramatically increase UK defence spending from 2030 and demonstrate a clear trajectory towards meeting the Nato target of 3.5% of GDP. Achieving this goal would require an additional £25 billion per year for the military by the mid-2030s.
Jarvis Confident in Burnham's Commitment
Jarvis, a former paratrooper who hopes to retain his position, expressed confidence that Burnham values national security. He openly lobbied for funding that would likely necessitate cuts elsewhere in public spending. Speaking ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara, Jarvis stated: “What I absolutely will want to see is that in the next spending review we commit the resources to evidence the trajectory to 3.5%.”
Jarvis has already discussed defence priorities with Burnham and his team, including the £298 billion, four-year Defence Investment Plan (Dip) published last week after months of ministerial wrangling. “I’ve known Andy for a very long time and I have not a shred of doubt that as prime minister he will make sure that we’ve got the resources that we need at a point of challenge,” Jarvis said.
Heightened Security Threats
Jarvis described the current global security environment as “absolutely more dangerous and more complicated than at any point during my lifetime,” citing Russian warships and shadow fleet vessels accused of launching drones near RAF Lakenheath. Britain is preparing for its most significant sustained deployment in years, safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz in a joint operation with France, contingent on a sustainable US-Iran peace deal. Reports indicate Downing Street has kept Burnham out of detailed planning for this operation.
Jarvis will travel to Ankara with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper. He plans to personally assure US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the UK will honour its 3.5% spending pledge, made under pressure from Donald Trump. “I will give him the commitment that we will honour the pledges, the commitments that we’ve made to the United States and to our Nato allies,” Jarvis said, referring to the biggest increase in military spending since World War II.
Funding Challenges and Defence Investment Plan
Jarvis’s predecessor, John Healey, resigned last month after Starmer only committed to increasing defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030, leaving a steep climb to the 3.5% target by 2035. Jarvis secured an additional £1.5 billion over four years as part of the £298 billion Dip, partly to boost spending on drones, though the overall uplift was modest. The plan sparked backlash after it emerged that spending on roads and other capital programmes would be cut, and a £4.7 billion hole would need to be filled by the Treasury in Burnham’s first budget.
Burnham, a former Greater Manchester mayor and health secretary, has limited defence or foreign affairs experience. However, he stated in a recent interview that he would “fully fund” the Dip and that if he became prime minister, there would be “no compromise on the security of the nation.” Meeting the Nato commitment will require a £25 billion shift in resources towards defence, funded by cutting other spending, raising taxes, or increasing borrowing, though current headroom for significant debt increases is limited.
Jarvis's Case for Defence
Jarvis acknowledged the need to “make the case for defence” to the public and cabinet colleagues. He described leaving a funding gap for the next budget as “entirely routine in terms of Whitehall accounting” and stressed the necessity of publishing the delayed Dip before the Nato meeting. “I don’t think we should be distracted from the fact that in a short space of time we skewed more money and we sharpened our capabilities,” Jarvis said, noting he secured about £600 million extra for drones after studying their use in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Jarvis attributed his ability to finalise the Dip where Healey failed to constructive negotiations with Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The Treasury approved an extra £15 billion for defence until 2030, £1.5 billion more than Healey obtained, but less than the £18 billion originally sought in earlier negotiations.
Personal Journey to Defence Secretary
Jarvis learned of Healey’s resignation while visiting the Sandhurst training academy, marking 30 years since he first arrived as a cadet. “My phone was ringing away,” he said, but he was informed of the news – described as “a big shock” – by someone who approached him. Starmer offered him the cabinet job in person at Downing Street that evening, which Jarvis called “a very big moment, because for 30 years or more I’ve been thinking about these things,” referencing his military service.
Jarvis was commissioned into the Parachute Regiment, serving in Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Iraq, and Afghanistan before resigning in 2011 to become MP for Barnsley Central (now Barnsley North). He also served as mayor of South Yorkshire and security minister before his promotion. Jarvis accepted Starmer’s offer promptly, stating it was not a “transactional conversation” and he did not demand more defence funding as a precondition.
Jarvis expressed a desire to remain in post under Burnham, noting he will have spent five weeks in the role by the earliest date Burnham can become prime minister. “It’d be for Andy Burnham to determine,” he said, “and I very much hope I have the opportunity to continue serving.”
