Polls have opened for midterm local and regional elections on Thursday that could deliver a heavy blow to embattled British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The elections are widely viewed as a verdict on his leadership, with voters casting ballots across England, Scotland, and Wales.
What's at Stake
Starmer's centre-left Labour Party is bracing for significant losses in voting that will determine about 5,000 local councilors and a handful of mayors in England, as well as the semi-autonomous parliaments in Scotland and Wales. Polls opened at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. While some local authorities will count ballots overnight, the majority of results are expected to be announced on Friday afternoon.
A Referendum on the Prime Minister
Local elections typically focus on bread-and-butter issues such as waste collection, graffiti, and pothole repairs. However, Starmer's opponents have framed Thursday's vote as a referendum on the prime minister himself. A heavy defeat could trigger moves by restive Labour lawmakers to oust a leader who brought them to power less than two years ago. Even if Starmer survives the immediate aftermath, many analysts doubt he will lead the party into the next general election, which must take place by 2029.
Starmer's popularity has plummeted following a series of missteps since he became prime minister in July 2024. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair deteriorating public services, and ease the cost of living—challenges exacerbated by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The prime minister's standing was further damaged by his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a friend of the late Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain's ambassador to Washington.
Party Fortunes
Labour is defending approximately 2,500 seats on English local councils, and party officials are anxious about potential heavy losses. An electoral rout could spark an immediate leadership challenge or internal pressure for Starmer to resign. He already survived a crisis in February when some Labour lawmakers, including the party's leader in Scotland, urged him to step down over the Mandelson appointment.
Luke Tryl of the polling firm More in Common said the local elections are likely to witness "the total collapse of the traditional two-party system" that has dominated British politics for decades. The anticipated big winner is the hard-right Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which is targeting working-class, former Labour strongholds in northern England and outer London with its anti-establishment, anti-immigration platform. The Green Party is also expected to gain hundreds of council seats in urban centres and university towns.
The main opposition Conservative Party is also predicted to lose ground, while the centrist Liberal Democrats could make some gains. In his final pre-election message, Starmer did not even mention the Conservatives, framing the choice as between "progress and a better future" under Labour and "the anger and division offered up by Reform or empty promises from the Greens."
Reform's Ambitions
Farage stated on the eve of the election that a strong result for Reform would mean Starmer is "gone by the middle of summer." Reform is also eyeing breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales, although pro-independence parties—the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru—are likely to form governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff.
Tony Travers, a professor of government at the London School of Economics, noted that Labour faces a multi-front battle: "Labour's going to lose to Reform in some places, Greens in others, and here and there they'll lose one or two seats to the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives as well. They're fighting on four fronts in England—five in Wales and Scotland."
