Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has warned that a Reform UK-led government that seeks to "double down on Brexit" could act as an "accelerator" towards Irish reunification. Speaking at the Future of these Islands event in Belfast, Varadkar said the election of a Reform UK government could have a similar effect to the 2016 Brexit referendum, which he described as an "accelerator for change" in the debate over Northern Ireland's constitutional future.
Ireland's current Minister for Justice, Jim O'Callaghan, also suggested that a rise in English nationalism could influence the debate and potentially bring forward the timing of any future referenda on unity. O'Callaghan restated his view that organisations such as the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) could be retained in a united Ireland, working alongside Ireland's Garda, similar to separate police forces in different areas of England.
Reform UK and the European Convention on Human Rights
Varadkar said a Reform UK government could press for a UK withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which would pose profound questions for Northern Ireland given that much of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement is underpinned by the convention. "I think there is a possibility that an accelerator could be a UK government led by Reform, led by Nigel Farage, that doubles down on Brexit, that takes this view that Brexit failed because it wasn’t done properly, and looks for a harder separation from the EU, and reopens these questions around ECHR, where the checks are done, and so on," Varadkar said. He added that such a possibility "might be closer than we think."
However, Varadkar described a Reform-led government as a "possibility" rather than a "probability." He predicted that the UK would not vote for Reform, and suggested that Andy Burnham could call and win a snap general election if elected Labour leader. "I’m not predicting this, but I think we have to consider the possibility that a UK election, a UK Westminster election, which we were certain was going to be in 2029, now could happen in 2027 and there’s a possibility, although not a probability, that that could result in a Reform-led government or Reform/Conservative coalition, and we have to think about the consequences of that," he said.
Fine Gael's Vision for a United Ireland
Varadkar's successor as Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris, recently announced that his party would set out its vision for a united Ireland later this year. Varadkar welcomed the move, saying, "I was very happy about it, and I’m very glad to see that Fine Gael will be active in this space and part of this debate, so it was welcome." O'Callaghan, a Fianna Fáil TD, said he was not concerned by Fine Gael's move, adding, "I think it’s healthy that political parties in the south are preparing and discussing this issue."
Under the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll on reunification should be called by the Northern Ireland Secretary when there is evidence that public opinion has shifted in favour of constitutional change. Successive UK governments have declined to specify the criteria for measuring public sentiment. Outgoing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the question of calling a referendum is "not even on the horizon."
O'Callaghan's Vision for a United Ireland
O'Callaghan published a paper in 2021 outlining his ideas for a united Ireland, including retaining a role for Stormont and the PSNI as a stand-alone police service. Asked by reporters if referenda could be held by the end of this decade, O'Callaghan said that could happen if Reform UK came to power. "There could be (a poll in the next four years) if Reform came to power, if they decided that they wanted to get out of the European Convention on Human Rights and if that required them to dispense with Northern Ireland, that could occur, but I can’t predict the future," he said. He stressed the need for future Irish governments to plan for constitutional change, acknowledging it would create a "sensitive political issue" given concerns about antagonising unionists.
O'Callaghan suggested framing the question initially in the context of the Republic of Ireland and its citizens, rather than broadening the debate to the whole island. "That is a sensitive way for the Irish state to put out what it is we’re prepared to do to achieve Irish reunification, and I think that could be seen as something that isn’t threatening or insensitive to other people," he said.
SDLP Leader Welcomes Contributions
SDLP leader Claire Hanna welcomed the contributions made during the event at the MAC Belfast. She said the rise of English nationalism "looms quite large" in the debate on Irish unity. "The prospect of a Reform-led or Reform-infused UK government is serious, and every single speaker acknowledged the reality of that and the potential it would have," she said. "Both they (Reform UK) could decide they just wanted to dispense with this region, or some of their platforms and proposals – things like leaving the European Convention on Human Rights – could create a challenge and create a crisis. That is why we are arguing for prudent planning."
