Scientists are warning that global warming will inevitably bring invasive mosquitoes to Britain, sparking fears of outbreaks of tropical diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika. Experts say Brits “should be concerned” that the UK is not prepared for the influx of these bugs and the dangerous illnesses they spread, with cases potentially occurring on these shores within the next 20 years.
Rising Temperatures Create New Habitats for Disease-Carrying Insects
Rising temperatures and milder winters are making parts of Britain more hospitable to disease-carrying insects that were once limited to hotter countries. This ultimately increases the odds of imported cases and, eventually, occasional local transmission. Dr Peter Chan, a Wellcome Career Development Fellow and senior researcher in environmental epidemiology at Oxford Population Health, University of Oxford, exclusively told the Daily Star that neglected tropical diseases could reach British shores within the next two decades without radical climate action.
“Short answer is YES,” he said, pointing to evidence that the changing climate is “shifting and expanding viable habitats of mosquitoes up north.” Dr Chan said the UK is already seeing rising risks in southern and central Europe and it is “very likely” we will see more imported cases, and “occasional local transmission in specific settings (most likely south east England) further down the line.”
Aedes Mosquitoes Spreading Across Europe
He said Aedes mosquitoes, which can transmit dengue, chikungunya and Zika, have been spreading across mainland Europe for years. While they are not established in the UK yet, he warned they could become so if temperatures warm enough and there are suitable stagnant water sites for breeding. Dengue and chikungunya are already causing increasingly frequent local outbreaks in Europe, he said, making them a realistic future threat.
Prof Daniel M Altmann, from the Department of Immunology and Inflammation at Imperial College London, said the shift is already visible elsewhere. He told the Daily Star: “This is quite likely - we’re already seeing these diseases spreading to places like Southern Italy and the South of France and, as we’ve seen over the past few weeks, we have to assume that summers with periods in the 30s may become ‘normal’ here too.” Altmann said the mosquito species thought to benefit most from climate-driven spread is Aedes aegypti, which in theory can transmit dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika - and he noted chikungunya has appeared most commonly in European spread.
Gradual Threat but Significant Impact
Experts stressed it’s not about an overnight epidemic. Dr Chan said the average person’s absolute risk is still “extremely low” and will remain low overall, but some people will be more vulnerable depending on where they live and their exposure. Both Chan and Altmann said any change is likely to be gradual. But gradual doesn’t mean harmless.
Altmann pointed to Brazil’s huge health and economic burden from these infections, warning chikungunya can cause long-term, arthritis-like illness that leaves some sufferers unable to work for months or even years. A UK-based pharmacist, Ana Carolina Goncalves, told the Daily Star that mainstream modelling suggests a longer timeline - but it is still a path the UK must plan for.
UKHSA Modelling Predicts Tiger Mosquito Establishment by 2040s
She cited UKHSA climate modelling indicating the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can carry dengue, chikungunya and Zika, could become established across much of England by the 2040s and 2050s - with London potentially facing endemic dengue transmission by around 2060. She also flagged a more immediate concern: West Nile virus.
UKHSA announced in May 2025 that West Nile genetic material had been detected in mosquitoes collected in Nottinghamshire in July 2023. UKHSA has said the current public risk is very low, and there have been no UK mosquito-acquired cases to date, only a small number in returning travellers - but the find shows why surveillance matters.
Preparedness Concerns and Advice
On preparedness, Dr Chan said the UK has a national contingency plan for invasive Aedes mosquitoes and established surveillance via UKHSA, but added monitoring and research funding would need to expand as risks rise. Altmann was blunter: “We currently wouldn’t be well prepared.”
Dr Chan said “people shouldn’t panic” - but should use the time to prepare, including reducing stagnant water around homes and learning basic protection against bites. He warned the biggest danger is once these diseases become established, they become far harder to control and could widen health inequalities, hitting hardest those least able to adapt.
