Novo Nordisk's market value jumped by approximately £9bn on Thursday following positive clinical trial results for its oral anti-obesity pill. The tablet version of Wegovy showed significant weight loss, nearly matching the efficacy of the injectable drug, boosting investor confidence.
Shares in the Danish drugmaker rose over 6% on hopes it can regain market share lost to US rival Eli Lilly and cheaper generic GLP-1 drugs. The stock had fallen nearly 60% in the past year due to slowing sales and profit warnings, prompting CEO Mike Doustdar to plan 9,000 layoffs.
In a 64-week late-stage trial involving 307 obese or overweight adults, patients on the once-daily pill lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight, with close to one in three losing 20% or more. Side effects were similar to the injectable version. Novo has submitted the drug to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and expects a decision by year-end, with production already underway at US sites.
The pill competes directly with Eli Lilly's orforglipron, which in a separate trial showed average weight loss of 12.4% at the highest dose over 72 weeks, with one in five losing 20% or more. Lilly plans to submit its pill for FDA approval later this year, with analysts estimating peak sales of $10bn annually, potentially up to $25bn.
UBS analyst Matthew Weston sees “clear leadership” for Novo's oral obesity pill, forecasting peak sales of $5bn, including $4bn in the US. However, he noted that orforglipron may be more scalable and potentially cheaper, and does not require fasting for 30 minutes before intake, making it more convenient.
Pill versions are easier to store, distribute, and administer, and are expected to be cheaper than injectables, which are expensive and limited by the NHS to high clinical need patients. Novo's pill uses an absorption enhancer to prevent the active ingredient, semaglutide, from breaking down in the stomach.
