An outbreak of deadly hantavirus on a Dutch cruise ship off the West African coast has sparked social media speculation about whether the rare rodent-borne illness could trigger the next global pandemic and bring back COVID-era lockdowns. However, experts are downplaying the risk, stating that hantavirus is unlikely to spread widely.
Current Situation
Three cases of hantavirus have been confirmed by laboratory testing since mid-March, with three deaths reported, including a married couple. The outbreak occurred on the MV Hondius, a cruise ship operated by Oceanwide Expeditions. The ship is currently en route to the Canary Islands, where passengers who are not showing symptoms will be evacuated. Some passengers have already been medically evacuated, and 30 guests disembarked at St. Helena on April 24, including six of the ship's 17 Americans.
Researchers are tracing potentially exposed passengers in Georgia, California, Arizona, Virginia, Texas, and other countries worldwide.
Expert Opinions
Vincent Racaniello, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University, explained that the key to transmission is shedding virus in the presymptomatic and asymptomatic phase, which hantavirus does not do efficiently. "For hantavirus, the barrier is efficient human-to-human transmission," he told Newsweek. Even on the vessel with nearly 200 passengers and crew, infections have only been seen in people with close contact, such as the married couple.
Maria Van Kerkhove, director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention at the World Health Organization, stated, "This is not the next COVID, but it is a serious infectious disease. Most people will never be exposed to this." The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also assured that the risk to the American public remains "extremely low."
Andes Virus Characteristics
The strain involved is Andes virus, which is usually limited to people who have close contact with an ill person. While it can be spread for weeks after falling ill, a previous outbreak in Argentina suggested the transmission window is only about a day, according to Dr. Gustavo Palacios, a microbiologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.
Thomas Ksiazek, a virologist with experience tracking emerging infectious diseases, told Newsweek, "If it were going to become an epidemic, it would have happened a long time ago." Hantavirus was first detected in the U.S. in the early 1990s.
Future Pandemic Risk
While experts insist that Andes virus is not the next pandemic, researchers have long warned that another pandemic is inevitable. A 2021 study by Duke University's Global Health Institute estimated that the probability of a pandemic similar to COVID-19 is about 2 percent in any given year, and the prospect of disease outbreaks will likely triple in the coming decades.
Yonatan Grad, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, noted in 2024, "Is there another pandemic coming? Yes. When? Which pathogen? How severe will it be? No one can say for sure. But the big demographic changes that are coming, due to climate change as well as economic and other factors, will alter the landscape and create new risks."
