As the world monitors a deadly hantavirus outbreak on a Dutch cruise ship off West Africa, social media speculation has arisen about whether the rare rodent-borne illness could trigger the next global pandemic and bring back Covid-era lockdowns. Researchers are tracing potentially exposed passengers across several U.S. states and other countries, but experts maintain there is little reason to believe hantavirus—especially this rare strain—will spread widely.
Transmission Barriers
"The key to transmission is shedding virus in the presymptomatic and asymptomatic phase," said Vincent Racaniello, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University. "Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are very good at it. For hantavirus, the barrier is efficient human-to-human transmission." Even on the vessel with nearly 200 passengers and crew, infections have only occurred among those with close contact, including a married couple. Since mid-March, three people have died, and three cases have been confirmed by laboratory testing.
Current Status
The ship is heading to the Canary Islands to evacuate passengers, none of whom currently show symptoms, according to Oceanwide Expeditions. Several passengers have been medically evacuated, and 30 guests disembarked at St. Helena on April 24, including six of the 17 Americans aboard. Hantavirus is fatal in nearly 40% of cases, with fever and dizziness typically appearing within two months of exposure to infected rodents, per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, the agency stressed that the risk to the American public remains "extremely low."
The World Health Organization echoed this sentiment. "This is not the next Covid, but it is a serious infectious disease," said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness. "Most people will never be exposed to this." Unlike Covid, which spreads easily through the air before symptoms appear, the Andes strain of hantavirus is usually limited to close contact with an ill person. Research on its spread is limited, but a previous outbreak in Argentina suggested the transmission window is only about a day, noted Dr. Gustavo Palacios of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.
Historical Context
First detected in the U.S. in the early 1990s, the virus has had ample opportunity to cause widespread disease. "If it were going to become an epidemic, it would have happened a long time ago," said Thomas Ksiazek, a virologist with experience tracking emerging infectious diseases. While experts are confident that Andes virus is not the next pandemic, they have long warned that another pandemic is inevitable. Researchers at Duke University's Global Health Institute estimated in 2021 that the probability of a Covid-like pandemic in any given year is about 2%, and the frequency of disease outbreaks could triple in coming decades.
"Is there another pandemic coming? Yes. When? Which pathogen? How severe? No one can say for sure," said Yonatan Grad, a professor at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in a 2024 statement. "But big demographic changes due to climate change and economic factors will alter the landscape and create new risks for pathogens to emerge and re-emerge."
