Britain could face shortages of essential medicines, from painkillers to cancer treatments, within weeks if the Iran war persists, experts have warned. The conflict has disrupted supply chains for critical raw materials, and health essentials are now at risk.
David Weeks, director of supply chain risk management at Moody's, described the situation as a 'perfect storm', citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and India's role as a major producer of generic drugs. With airports in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi operating limited schedules, pharmaceutical companies have had to reroute shipments via air or sea, lengthening journey times.
Mark Samuels, chief executive of Medicines UK, which represents manufacturers of generic drugs that make up 85% of NHS medications, said that if the conflict drags on, shortages could emerge in just a few weeks. Medical distributors typically hold six to eight weeks of stocks, while hospital suppliers in England must hold eight weeks' worth.
The UK produces about a quarter of its medicines domestically, with a third coming from India and another third from the EU. The US-Israel war on Iran has doubled air freight costs, and Samuels warned that manufacturers, operating on low margins, may find some medicines lossmaking to supply to the NHS.
Wouter Dewulf, a professor at Antwerp Management School, noted that supplies are currently 'disturbed' but not disrupted, though he expects single-digit price increases if the situation worsens. Frank Van Gelder, secretary general of Pharma.Aero, highlighted that air cargo levels dropped 80% earlier this month, affecting the transport of expensive cancer treatments and biologics that require cold storage.
Shipping, the main route for most medicines, is also under strain due to the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative sea routes around the Cape of Good Hope add 14 days and $1 million in fuel costs. Rising crude oil and natural gas prices further impact the cost of petrochemicals needed to manufacture active pharmaceutical ingredients and medical supplies.
