The UK could face major medicine shortages within weeks if the conflict in Iran persists, experts have warned. The US-Israeli war in Iran has disrupted the supply of raw materials, including oil, gas, and helium, driving up costs. Essential medications, from painkillers to cancer treatments, may be next in line for supply disruptions.
Mark Samuels, chief executive of Medicines UK, which represents manufacturers of generic drugs that make up 85% of NHS medications, stated that shortages could emerge in a matter of weeks if the conflict drags on. He noted that medical distributors typically hold six to eight weeks of stock, but the war has doubled air freight costs, affecting one in five NHS medicines that arrive by air.
The conflict has also impacted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route. Since Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took control, only 165 vessels have transited before the waterway closed. This has caused oil prices to soar and led to shortages in Asia, with the Philippines declaring a national emergency and India rationing cooking gas.
David Weeks, director of supply chain risk management at Moody's, described the situation as a 'perfect storm', noting that India, a major producer of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients, is struggling to export due to geopolitical tensions. The Independent Pharmacies Association has called on the government to act, warning that common medicines like blood pressure drugs, painkillers, antidepressants, and hormone replacement therapies are already in short supply.
A government spokesperson said there are currently no reported medicine shortages due to the conflict, but the situation is being closely monitored. The Department of Health and Social Care has processes in place to manage disruption across the health sector.
