Nearly half of the 6.23 million patients on NHS England waiting lists have received no further care since their GP referral, according to new data analysed by health data specialist MBI Health. The figures show that 2.99 million patients (48%) have not had a first specialist appointment or diagnostic test, a situation described by the Patients Association as an 'invisible waiting list crisis'.
The data raises questions about Prime Minister Keir Starmer's pledge to have 92% of patients treated within 18 weeks by 2029. Currently, only 61% are treated on time, and one million of the unseen patients have already waited over 18 weeks without any care. NHS England confirmed that of 7.3 million treatments awaited, 4.7 million are for patients who have not had a first consultation or diagnostic test.
Rachel Power, chief executive of the Patients Association, said: 'If accurate, 3 million people are trapped in an invisible waiting list crisis, stuck without basic diagnostic tests or first appointments while their conditions worsen. The scale is staggering, as nearly half of all patients on a waiting list haven't been seen by anyone. That's not a healthcare service; that's a breakdown.'
Barry Mulholland, founder of MBI Health and a former NHS manager, called the waiting list a 'frontlog' rather than a backlog, as so many have not had their first clinical contact. He warned that the 18-week target would be impossible to achieve unless these patients are seen more quickly. The specialities with the most unseen patients include ear, nose and throat care, orthopaedics, eye care, gastroenterology and gynaecology, where 67% to 75% of waiting lists consist of such patients.
